MAR
Marriott International, Inc.
MAR has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over MAR overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MAR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Unavailable |
MAR's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
MAR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 23x | $235 | -45% |
| Fair | 31x | $306 | -28% |
| Forward | 33x | $425 | — |
| Current | 42x | $425 | — |
| Expensive | 53x | $529 | +24% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MAR's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 33x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over MAR in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MAR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
MAR has the edge over NKE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MAR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.98 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.04 | +5.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.67 | +8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.55 | +8.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.51 | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.48 | -0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.88 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.79 | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.33 | -18% |
MAR has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
MAR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7B | +8% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.1B | +4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.7B | +6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.7B | +4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.5B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.7B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.3B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.4B | +5.5% |
MAR has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | 0 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | -0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +3.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -0.1 points |
MAR has the edge over NKE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE's operating margin was 8.2% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MAR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $796M | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $728M | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $657M | +$681M |
| Q3 2025 | $951M | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $488M | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $512M | -24% |
| Q4 2024 | -$24M | -104% |
MAR has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
MAR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -3.3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.1% | -11.3M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -38.9M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -68.1M shares |
| Available history | -22% | -74.3M shares |
MAR has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $700M |
| Q4 2025 | $1B |
| Q3 2025 | $800M |
| Q2 2025 | $749M |
| Q1 2025 | $751M |
| Q4 2024 | $586M |
MAR spent $4.1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 41% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
MAR Net Leverage
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
MAR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 72.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 89.3 | Overbought |
MAR's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
MAR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | MAR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 18x | 135% above |
| PE % | 81 | 47 | 34 pts above |
MAR is trading at 42x earnings, a 135% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over MAR on valuation relative to its sector.
MAR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $387.0 | 9.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $369.3 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $353.3 | 20% above |
| 100 week MA | $310.1 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $263.5 | 61% above |
MAR has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
MAR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $152.7 | $128.8 | -16% |
| 2021 | $128.8 | $165.2 | +28% |
| 2022 | $165.2 | $148.6 | -10% |
| 2023 | $148.6 | $225.5 | +52% |
| 2024 | $225.5 | $283.7 | +26% |
| 2025 | $283.7 | $315.6 | +11% |
| 2026 YTD | $315.6 | $424.7 | +35% |
MAR has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.