MA
Mastercard Incorporated
MA has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MA's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MA.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
MA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 29x | $653 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $646 | -1% |
| Current | 34x | $653 | — |
| Fair | 38x | $725 | +11% |
| Expensive | 46x | $877 | +34% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MA has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
MA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MA, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
MA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.24 | +16% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.12 | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.18 | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $17.28 | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.52 | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.64 | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.83 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.26 | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.89 | +17% |
MA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.12 over the past year, up 22% from the year before, and higher year over year for 21 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over MA on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.8B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $9.3B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.4B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.8B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.6B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.1B | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.3B | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.5B | +14% |
MA's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $9.8B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 60% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 60% | +1.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 58% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 56% | +3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 59% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 59% | +0.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 57% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 53% | +1.1 points |
MA has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over MA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.9B | -11% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.5B | -24% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8B | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9B | +3.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.5B | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.6B | +51% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7B | +17% |
MA has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -3.2% | -29M shares |
| 3 years | -7.1% | -67M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -114M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -137M shares |
MA has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.9B |
| Q1 2026 | $4B |
| Q4 2025 | $3.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.3B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B |
MA spent $15.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 33% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
MA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
MA has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
MA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.0 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 83.7 | Overbought |
MA's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MA PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 34x | 13x | 162% above |
| PE % | 18 | 63 | 45 pts below |
MA is trading at 34x earnings, a 162% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over MA on valuation relative to its sector.
MA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $611.7 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $581.9 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $544.5 | 20% above |
| 100 week MA | $549.6 | 19% above |
| 200 week MA | $489.6 | 33% above |
MA has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
MA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $300.7 | $336.0 | +12% |
| 2021 | $336.0 | $360.6 | +7.3% |
| 2022 | $360.6 | $343.6 | -4.7% |
| 2023 | $343.6 | $426.5 | +24% |
| 2024 | $426.5 | $532.2 | +25% |
| 2025 | $532.2 | $579.6 | +8.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $579.6 | $652.6 | +13% |
MA has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.