LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
LOCO has the edge over NKE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LOCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
LOCO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
LOCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $14.02 | -5.3% |
| Current | 13x | $14.80 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $14.80 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $17.10 | +16% |
| Expensive | 22x | $25.82 | +74% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LOCO's PE is in its cheap range at 13x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 14x, in its fair range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over LOCO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LOCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect LOCO's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LOCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.03 | -10% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.15 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.17 | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.98 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.90 | +4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.89 | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.85 | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.86 | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.86 | +16% |
LOCO has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
LOCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $126.3M | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $129.6M | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $126.2M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $123.5M | +8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $121.5M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $125.8M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $119.2M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $114.3M | +1.8% |
LOCO has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.1% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.4% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9% | +1.3 points |
LOCO's operating margin was 8.1% last quarter, down 1.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over LOCO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LOCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $506K | -95% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.3M | +156% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8M | +105% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.1M | +349% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.9M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.1M | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1M | -47% |
LOCO has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
LOCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +116K shares |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +802K shares |
| 3 years | -9.8% | -3.3M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -6.3M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -5M shares |
LOCO has 30M diluted shares, up 2.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $68,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2024 | $17M |
| Q1 2024 | $1.2M |
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has the edge over LOCO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
LOCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
LOCO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over LOCO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LOCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.4 | Neutral |
LOCO's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
LOCO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | LOCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 18x | 29% below |
| PE % | 26 | 47 | 21 pts below |
LOCO has the edge over NKE on valuation relative to its sector.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE is trading at 18x earnings, in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
LOCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.9 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.4 | 4% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.8 | 7.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $11.3 | 32% above |
LOCO has the edge over NKE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
LOCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.9 | $18.4 | +24% |
| 2021 | $18.4 | $14.5 | -21% |
| 2022 | $14.5 | $10.3 | -29% |
| 2023 | $10.3 | $8.82 | -14% |
| 2024 | $8.82 | $11.6 | +31% |
| 2025 | $11.6 | $10.9 | -6.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $10.9 | $14.8 | +36% |
LOCO has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.