LOCO
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc.
LOCO has the edge over NIO overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LOCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
LOCO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LOCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $14.02 | -5.3% |
| Current | 13x | $14.80 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $14.80 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $17.10 | +16% |
| Expensive | 22x | $25.82 | +74% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LOCO's PE is in its cheap range at 13x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 14x, in its fair range.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LOCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect LOCO's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over LOCO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
LOCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.03 | -10% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.15 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.17 | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.98 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.90 | +4.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.89 | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.85 | 0% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.86 | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.86 | +16% |
LOCO has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
LOCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $126.3M | +3.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $129.6M | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $126.2M | +5.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $123.5M | +8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $121.5M | +0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $125.8M | +3% |
| Q1 2025 | $119.2M | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $114.3M | +1.8% |
LOCO's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $126M last quarter, up 3.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.1% | -1.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.4% | +1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9% | +1.3 points |
LOCO has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO's revenue has grown year over year for seven quarters in a row: $4.8B last quarter, up 69% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LOCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $506K | -95% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.3M | +156% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8M | +105% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.1M | +349% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.9M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.1M | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3M | -81% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1M | -47% |
LOCO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $32M over the past year.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
LOCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +116K shares |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +802K shares |
| 3 years | -9.8% | -3.3M shares |
| 5 years | -17% | -6.3M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -5M shares |
LOCO has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $68,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3M |
| Q3 2024 | $1.1M |
| Q2 2024 | $17M |
| Q1 2024 | $1.2M |
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
LOCO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.2x | Healthy |
LOCO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LOCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.4 | Neutral |
LOCO's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
LOCO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | LOCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 18x | 29% below |
| PE % | 26 | 47 | 21 pts below |
LOCO is trading at 13x earnings, a 29% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LOCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.9 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.4 | 4% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.8 | 7.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $11.3 | 32% above |
LOCO has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
LOCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.9 | $18.4 | +24% |
| 2021 | $18.4 | $14.5 | -21% |
| 2022 | $14.5 | $10.3 | -29% |
| 2023 | $10.3 | $8.82 | -14% |
| 2024 | $8.82 | $11.6 | +31% |
| 2025 | $11.6 | $10.9 | -6.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $10.9 | $14.8 | +36% |
LOCO has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.