LOB
Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
LOB has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LOB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
LOB's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like LOB.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
LOB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.1x | $34.63 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $30.19 | -13% |
| Current | 12x | $34.63 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $58.49 | +69% |
| Expensive | 34x | $97.13 | +180% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LOB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
LOB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for LOB, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
LOB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.81 | +35% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.82 | +89% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.85 | +134% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.62 | +102% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.23 | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.49 | -19% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.22 | -50% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.30 | -42% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.69 | +3% |
LOB's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.82 over the past year, against $4.54 in late 2022.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over LOB on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
LOB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $175.6M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $156.1M | +8.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $145.5M | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $161.9M | +26% |
| Q3 2025 | $146.1M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $143.7M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $126.1M | +8.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $128.1M | +7% |
LOB's revenue has grown year over year for 12 quarters in a row: $176M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | -5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 29% | +7.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 28% | +17 points |
| Q4 2025 | 38% | +28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 25% | +11 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | -7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -8.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -4.3 points |
LOB's operating margin was 20% last quarter, down 5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over LOB on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over LOB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LOB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $124.4M | +105% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.4M | -86% |
| Q1 2026 | $85.3M | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $70.4M | +$294.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $60.6M | -67% |
| Q2 2025 | $206.7M | +210% |
| Q1 2025 | $102.7M | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | -$224.2M | -251% |
LOB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
LOB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +275K shares |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +652K shares |
| 3 years | +3.5% | +1.6M shares |
| 5 years | +4.9% | +2.2M shares |
| Available history | +14% | +5.8M shares |
LOB has 47M diluted shares, up 1.4% from a year ago.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over LOB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
LOB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -4.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -7.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.4x | Net Cash |
LOB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
LOB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 38.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 9.6 | Oversold |
LOB's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 10 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
LOB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | LOB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 5.7% below |
| PE % | 19 | 63 | 44 pts below |
LOB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
LOB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.2 | 1.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.8 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.6 | 7.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $34.8 | 0.6% below |
| 200 week MA | $35.2 | 1.5% below |
LOB is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.5% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over LOB on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LOB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.1 | $48.1 | +153% |
| 2021 | $48.1 | $83.7 | +74% |
| 2022 | $83.7 | $31.4 | -62% |
| 2023 | $31.4 | $45.5 | +45% |
| 2024 | $45.5 | $39.4 | -13% |
| 2025 | $39.4 | $35.2 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $35.2 | $34.6 | -1.6% |
LOB's yearly returns have swung widely, from +153% in 2020 to −62% in 2022. It's down 1.6% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over LOB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.