LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over TMDX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
TMDX
TransMedics Group, Inc.
TMDX offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TMDX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
TMDX's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
TMDX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 21x | $75.93 | -17% |
| Current | 25x | $92.00 | — |
| Forward | 41x | $92.00 | — |
| Fair | 59x | $217 | +136% |
| Expensive | 91x | $335 | +264% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TMDX has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over TMDX on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
TMDX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for TMDX, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
TMDX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.22 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.66 | +48% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.86 | +100% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.37 | +221% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.87 | +382% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.47 | +163% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.93 | +4725% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.36 | +$1.70 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.01 | +$1.78 |
TMDX's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.66 over the past year, up 48% from the year before, and higher year over year for 16 quarters in a row.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over TMDX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over TMDX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TMDX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $203M | +41% |
| Q2 2026 | $189.9M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $173.9M | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $160.8M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $143.8M | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $157.4M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $143.5M | +48% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.6M | +50% |
TMDX's revenue has grown year over year for 20 quarters in a row: $203M last quarter, up 41% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.6% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +6.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.1% | +3.9 points |
TMDX's operating margin was 14% last quarter, down 2.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
TMDX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.6M | -55% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.2M | -88% |
| Q1 2026 | -$12.1M | +$17.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $19M | +214% |
| Q3 2025 | $61.9M | +$103.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $82.5M | +4122% |
| Q1 2025 | -$29.9M | +$17.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $6.1M | +$39.6M |
TMDX has burned cash in most quarters: $45M over the past year, down 63% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over TMDX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TMDX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +124K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +85.2K shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +8.2M shares |
| 5 years | +47% | +13.1M shares |
| Available history | +92% | +19.6M shares |
TMDX has 41M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
TMDX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
TMDX has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
TMDX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.9 | Neutral |
TMDX's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 55 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
TMDX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | TMDX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 2.7% below |
| PE % | 29 | 29 | Same percentile |
TMDX has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over TMDX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
TMDX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $78.8 | 17% above |
| 20 week MA | $80.4 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $98.1 | 6.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $99.8 | 7.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $96.2 | 4.4% below |
TMDX has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 4.4% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over TMDX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
TMDX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.6 | $18.8 | +1% |
| 2021 | $18.8 | $21.0 | +12% |
| 2022 | $21.0 | $59.5 | +183% |
| 2023 | $59.5 | $78.9 | +33% |
| 2024 | $78.9 | $61.0 | -23% |
| 2025 | $61.0 | $124.2 | +104% |
| 2026 YTD | $124.2 | $92.0 | -26% |
TMDX has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 26% so far in 2026.