LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over TAK overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
TAK
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited
TAK has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
TAK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
TAK's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
TAK PE Valuation
TAK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over TAK on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
TAK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect TAK's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
TAK has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 51% for LLY versus TAK up 83%.
TAK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0.35 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.27 | -6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.21 | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.41 | +17% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.57 | +50% |
| Q2 2024 | $0.29 | -52% |
| Q1 2024 | $0.29 | -54% |
| Q4 2023 | $0.35 | -36% |
TAK earned $0.75 per share over the past year, up 83% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over TAK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over TAK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
TAK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.4B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.6B | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $7B | +5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +6% |
| Q3 2025 | $7B | -5.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.9B | -8.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.6B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.2B | +3% |
TAK's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $7.4B last quarter, up 6.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | N/A |
| Q1 2026 | 4.3% | -12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +23 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.2% | +0.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 17% | +2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -7.1% | -6.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.8% | -3.6 points |
TAK's operating margin was 17% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over TAK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TAK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $462.7M | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $63.5M | -92% |
| Q4 2025 | $945.7M | -54% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | +73% |
| Q2 2025 | $879.7M | +735% |
| Q2 2025 | $879.7M | +735% |
| Q1 2025 | $811.3M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +372% |
TAK still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $3.5B over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over TAK on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
TAK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +54.5M shares |
| 3 years | +2.5% | +78.8M shares |
| 5 years | +1.5% | +48.6M shares |
| Available history | +3% | +94M shares |
TAK has 3.2B diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3M |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $323.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $313.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over TAK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TAK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 4.0x | High |
TAK's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.6 years a year ago.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
TAK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.9 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 89.0 | Overbought |
TAK's weekly RSI is 74 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
TAK PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | TAK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
TAK has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
TAK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $19.8 | 6.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $18.5 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $17.4 | 21% above |
| 100 week MA | $15.9 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.3 | 38% above |
TAK is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 38% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
TAK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.8 | $18.1 | -8.7% |
| 2021 | $18.1 | $13.8 | -24% |
| 2022 | $13.8 | $15.5 | +13% |
| 2023 | $15.5 | $14.3 | -8.2% |
| 2024 | $14.3 | $13.3 | -7% |
| 2025 | $13.3 | $15.7 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $15.7 | $21.1 | +35% |
TAK has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.