LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has a slight edge over STX overall, supported by stronger valuation.
STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc
STX has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
STX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
STX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over STX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
STX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.9x | $188 | -65% |
| Forward | 12x | $545 | — |
| Fair | 17x | $318 | -42% |
| Current | 29x | $545 | — |
| Expensive | 43x | $823 | +51% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
STX's PE is in its expensive range at 29x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
STX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for STX, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
STX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.99 | +147% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.06 | +145% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.90 | +105% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.54 | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.84 | +60% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.79 | +101% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.77 | +328% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.96 | +$8.26 |
| Q4 2024 | $5.51 | +$9.02 |
STX's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $19.06 over the past year, up 145% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over STX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
STX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.2B | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1B | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.8B | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.6B | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.4B | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.3B | +50% |
STX's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $4.2B last quarter, up 61% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 49% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | 43% | +20 points |
| Q1 2026 | 32% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 30% | +8.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | +7.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | +6.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +11 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | +13 points |
STX has the edge over LLY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
STX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +246% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +163% |
| Q1 2026 | $953M | +341% |
| Q4 2025 | $607M | +305% |
| Q3 2025 | $427M | +1481% |
| Q2 2025 | $425M | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $216M | +69% |
| Q4 2024 | $150M | +52% |
STX has the edge over LLY on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over STX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
STX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.3% | +3M shares |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +6M shares |
| 3 years | +12% | +24M shares |
| 5 years | +0.4% | +1M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -33M shares |
STX has 232M diluted shares, up 2.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $400M |
| Q2 2026 | $117M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $29M |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
STX spent $547M buying back its own shares over the past year.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
STX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
STX has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
STX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 8.3 | Oversold |
STX's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
STX PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | STX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 29x | 28x | 2.7% above |
| PE % | 75 | 35 | 40 pts above |
STX has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over STX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
STX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $683.6 | 20% below |
| 20 week MA | $785.0 | 31% below |
| 50 week MA | $630.7 | 14% below |
| 100 week MA | $387.3 | 41% above |
| 200 week MA | $234.4 | 133% above |
STX has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 133% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
STX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $59.6 | $63.0 | +5.7% |
| 2021 | $63.0 | $111.4 | +77% |
| 2022 | $111.4 | $50.5 | -55% |
| 2023 | $50.5 | $85.4 | +69% |
| 2024 | $85.4 | $87.4 | +2.4% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $286.2 | +228% |
| 2026 YTD | $286.2 | $545.1 | +90% |
STX has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.