LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCI has the edge over LLY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SMCI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
SMCI's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently strong, but its cash flow is weak.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
SMCI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 4.3x | $26.99 | — |
| Current | 5.7x | $26.99 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $61.50 | +128% |
| Fair | 19x | $88.86 | +229% |
| Expensive | 26x | $125 | +363% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SMCI has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
SMCI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for SMCI, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over SMCI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SMCI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.22 | +31% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.75 | +274% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.26 | +94% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.91 | +4.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36 | -41% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.27 | -45% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.68 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.83 | +2.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.32 | +81% |
SMCI's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $4.75 over the past year, up from $1.27 the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over SMCI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SMCI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.9B | +298% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.1B | +93% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.2B | +123% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.7B | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $5B | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.8B | +7.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.7B | +55% |
SMCI's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $19.9B last quarter, up 298% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +6.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +9.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.1% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.6% | -5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4% | -1.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.2% | -6.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.5% | -3.7 points |
SMCI's operating margin was 10% last quarter, up 6.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over SMCI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SMCI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$475.6M | +$474.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $718.7M | -15% |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.7B | -1227% |
| Q4 2025 | -$45.1M | +$222.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$949.8M | -360% |
| Q2 2025 | $840.9M | +$1.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $594.1M | +$2.2B |
| Q4 2024 | -$267.3M | +$342.5M |
SMCI's free cash flow was −$6.5B over the past year, against $218M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over SMCI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SMCI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.5% | +52M shares |
| 1 year | +13% | +86.1M shares |
| 3 years | +31% | +178M shares |
| 5 years | +42% | +220M shares |
| Available history | +44% | +229M shares |
SMCI has 749M diluted shares, up 13% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | $12M |
| Q1 2021 | $43.1M |
| Q4 2020 | $46.4M |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
SMCI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
SMCI has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
SMCI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.1 | Oversold |
SMCI's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
SMCI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | SMCI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 5.7x | 28x | 80% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
SMCI has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over SMCI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SMCI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.3 | 23% below |
| 20 week MA | $34.2 | 21% below |
| 50 week MA | $32.3 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $36.9 | 27% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.8 | 32% below |
SMCI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 32% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over SMCI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SMCI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.41 | $3.05 | +27% |
| 2021 | $3.05 | $4.27 | +40% |
| 2022 | $4.27 | $8.22 | +93% |
| 2023 | $8.22 | $28.4 | +246% |
| 2024 | $28.4 | $32.0 | +12% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $30.6 | -4.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.6 | $27.0 | -12% |
SMCI has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 12% so far in 2026.