LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over SIGA overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
SIGA
SIGA Technologies, Inc.
SIGA trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
SIGA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Strong |
SIGA's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue, profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over SIGA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
SIGA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.4x | $0.06 | -98% |
| Fair | 9.5x | $0.10 | -97% |
| Expensive | 16x | $0.16 | -94% |
| Current | 289x | $2.89 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SIGA's PE is in its expensive range at 289x.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
SIGA Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for SIGA to show an outlook.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SIGA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $0.01 | -99% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.04 | -104% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28 | -58% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.32 | -61% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.02 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.13 | -3.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.67 | -39% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.82 | -14% |
SIGA's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.01 over the past year, against $1.44 in late 2022.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SIGA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3M | -50% |
| Q2 2026 | $41M | -49% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2M | -11% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.8M | -95% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.6M | -74% |
| Q2 2025 | $81.1M | +272% |
| Q1 2025 | $7M | -72% |
| Q4 2024 | $81.5M | -30% |
SIGA's revenue has slid since its 2023 peak: $1M last quarter, down 50% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -495% | -105 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -22 points |
| Q1 2026 | -85% | -53 points |
| Q4 2025 | -250% | -320 points |
| Q3 2025 | -390% | -396 points |
| Q2 2025 | 56% | +51 points |
| Q1 2025 | -32% | -76 points |
| Q4 2024 | 70% | -8.6 points |
SIGA's operating margin was −495% last quarter, down 105 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SIGA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.2M | +$8.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $15.2M | -76% |
| Q1 2026 | -$8.7M | -223% |
| Q4 2025 | -$16.9M | -130% |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.1M | -$2.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $63.1M | +960% |
| Q1 2025 | $7M | +$13.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $56.3M | -29% |
SIGA's free cash flow was −$12M over the past year, against $116M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
SIGA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -34.7K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +244K shares |
| 3 years | +1.1% | +764K shares |
| 5 years | -4% | -3M shares |
| Available history | -13% | -10.3M shares |
SIGA has 72M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $3.5M |
| Q1 2023 | $7.6M |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
SIGA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -6.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
SIGA has more cash than debt.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
SIGA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 21.2 | Neutral |
SIGA's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on valuation relative to its sector.
SIGA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | SIGA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 289x | 26x | 1,018% above |
| PE % | 100 | 29 | 71 pts above |
SIGA is trading at 289x earnings, a 1018% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SIGA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.18 | 9.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $3.22 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.58 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $5.66 | 49% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.08 | 52% below |
SIGA is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 52% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over SIGA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SIGA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.79 | $7.34 | +53% |
| 2021 | $7.34 | $7.99 | +8.9% |
| 2022 | $7.99 | $7.76 | -2.9% |
| 2023 | $7.76 | $5.60 | -28% |
| 2024 | $5.60 | $5.93 | +5.9% |
| 2025 | $5.93 | $6.27 | +5.7% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.27 | $2.89 | -54% |
SIGA is down 54% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.