LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over PTGX overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
PTGX
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc.
PTGX offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PTGX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
PTGX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
PTGX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 13x | $62.70 | -53% |
| Current | 28x | $134 | — |
| Fair | 42x | $197 | +47% |
| Expensive | 131x | $618 | +360% |
| Forward | 1,897x | $134 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PTGX has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over PTGX on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
PTGX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Strong decline | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect PTGX's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over PTGX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PTGX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.07 | -98% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.72 | +626% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.03 | +41% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.81 | -332% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.05 | -148% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.65 | -76% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.73 | -73% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.78 | -69% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.23 | +$5.62 |
PTGX's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $4.72 over the past year, up from $0.65 the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY's operating margin was 34% last quarter, down 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
PTGX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $274.4M | +5724% |
| Q2 2026 | $213.5M | +3749% |
| Q1 2026 | $56.4M | +99% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4M | -96% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.7M | +0.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.5M | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | $28.3M | -89% |
| Q4 2024 | $170.6M | +184% |
PTGX's revenue is growing: $274M last quarter, up 5724% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 80% | +1065 points |
| Q2 2026 | 74% | +832 points |
| Q1 2026 | -6.5% | +62 points |
| Q4 2025 | -677% | -751 points |
| Q3 2025 | -985% | -99 points |
| Q2 2025 | -758% | +173 points |
| Q1 2025 | -68% | -149 points |
| Q4 2024 | 74% | +36 points |
PTGX has the edge over LLY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over PTGX on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PTGX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$23.5M | -$21.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $218.9M | +$248.5M |
| Q1 2026 | -$49.2M | -139% |
| Q4 2025 | -$37.1M | -$7.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$2M | +$26.6M |
| Q2 2025 | -$29.6M | -111% |
| Q1 2025 | $124.8M | +$152.5M |
| Q4 2024 | -$29.5M | -274% |
PTGX has burned cash in almost every quarter: $109M over the past year, up 71% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over PTGX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PTGX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +725K shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +8M shares |
| 3 years | +21% | +12.5M shares |
| 5 years | +49% | +23.7M shares |
| Available history | +177% | +45.8M shares |
PTGX has 72M diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
PTGX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -7.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -6.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
PTGX has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
PTGX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.1 | Neutral |
PTGX's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
PTGX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | PTGX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 26x | 10% above |
| PE % | 49 | 29 | 20 pts above |
PTGX has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over PTGX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PTGX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $138.0 | 2.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $140.9 | 4.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $113.3 | 19% above |
| 100 week MA | $83.7 | 61% above |
| 200 week MA | $55.7 | 141% above |
PTGX has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 141% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
PTGX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $7.00 | $23.8 | +239% |
| 2021 | $23.8 | $34.3 | +44% |
| 2022 | $34.3 | $10.1 | -71% |
| 2023 | $10.1 | $22.9 | +127% |
| 2024 | $22.9 | $39.0 | +70% |
| 2025 | $39.0 | $88.8 | +128% |
| 2026 YTD | $88.8 | $134.4 | +51% |
PTGX has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.