LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has a slight edge over PRVA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
PRVA
Privia Health Group, Inc.
PRVA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PRVA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
PRVA's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
PRVA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 54x | $23.67 | — |
| Current | 88x | $23.67 | — |
| Cheap | 90x | $24.32 | +2.7% |
| Fair | 150x | $40.60 | +72% |
| Expensive | 207x | $55.80 | +136% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
PRVA has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
PRVA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for PRVA, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PRVA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.44 | +61% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.27 | +108% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.22 | +100% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.17 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.18 | +64% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.13 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.11 | -8.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.12 | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.11 | -42% |
PRVA earned $0.27 per share over the past year, up 108% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PRVA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $657M | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $632.6M | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $603.8M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $541.2M | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $580.4M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $521.2M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $480.1M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $460.9M | +4.6% |
PRVA's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $657M last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2% | +0.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1% | +0.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.5% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6% | -0.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1% | +0.8 points |
PRVA's operating margin was 3.1% last quarter, up 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
PRVA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $28.9M | -44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1M | -86% |
| Q1 2026 | -$49.5M | -$25.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $127.5M | +70% |
| Q3 2025 | $52M | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $8M | -77% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24.1M | +$9.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $74.8M | +17% |
PRVA generated $108M in free cash flow over the past year, down 2.4% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PRVA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +883K shares |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +3.9M shares |
| 3 years | +6.2% | +7.8M shares |
| 5 years | +25% | +26.8M shares |
| Available history | +29% | +29.9M shares |
PRVA has 133M diluted shares, up 3.1% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
PRVA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -7.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -7.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -8.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -10.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -11.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -14.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -16.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -20.3x | Net Cash |
PRVA has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
PRVA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.7 | Neutral |
PRVA's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 72 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on valuation relative to its sector.
PRVA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | PRVA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 88x | 26x | 239% above |
| PE % | 15 | 36 | 21 pts below |
PRVA is trading at 88x earnings, a 239% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
PRVA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $21.9 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $22.7 | 4.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.9 | 3.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $22.9 | 3.6% above |
| 200 week MA | $22.6 | 4.9% above |
PRVA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 4.9% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over PRVA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PRVA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $36.3 | $26.2 | -28% |
| 2022 | $26.2 | $23.4 | -11% |
| 2023 | $23.4 | $23.0 | -1.6% |
| 2024 | $23.0 | $19.9 | -14% |
| 2025 | $19.9 | $24.1 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $24.1 | $23.7 | -1.9% |
PRVA has finished lower in four of the last five years. It's down 1.9% so far in 2026.