LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over PIII overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
PIII
P3 Health Partners Inc.
PIII's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PIII Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak |
PIII's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
PIII PE Valuation
PIII has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
PIII Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| -- |
Analysts expect PIII's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over PIII on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
PIII Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$33.06 | +$17.95 |
| Q1 2026 | -$38.66 | +$13.62 |
| Q4 2025 | -$45.26 | +$8.74 |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.18 | -$4.18 |
| Q2 2025 | -$51.01 | -$19.51 |
| Q1 2025 | -$52.28 | -$23.78 |
| Q4 2024 | -$54.00 | -$22.50 |
| Q3 2024 | -$41.00 | +$93.00 |
PIII is still losing money, but far less than before: $33.06 per share over the past year, against $134.00 at its worst in late 2023.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over PIII on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over PIII on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PIII Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $396.3M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $386.4M | +8.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $386.4M | +3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $384.8M | +3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $345.3M | -4.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $355.8M | -6.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $373.2M | -3.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $370.7M | +6.9% |
PIII's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $396M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +19 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +20 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.1% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | -40% | -2.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | -13% | +17 points |
| Q2 2025 | -9.6% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -10% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -37% | -19 points |
PIII's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 19 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 259% versus its history, compared with PIII at down 6.5%.
PIII Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$61.9M | -$45.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$27.5M | +$6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$25.7M | +$31.5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$16.6M | -$6.4M |
| Q1 2025 | -$33.5M | -$13.4M |
| Q4 2024 | -$57.2M | -$41.6M |
| Q3 2024 | -$22.6M | -$14.6M |
| Q2 2024 | -$10.2M | +$19.8M |
PIII has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$116M over the past year, against −$130M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over PIII on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PIII Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +97% | +3.3M shares |
| 1 year | +103% | +3.4M shares |
| 3 years | +6% | +373K shares |
PIII has 7M diluted shares, up 103% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | $180,000 |
| Q1 2020 | — |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over PIII on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
PIII Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28.6x | High |
PIII's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
PIII Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 29.3 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 2.8 | Oversold |
PIII's weekly RSI is 29 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 3 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
PIII PE vs Healthcare Sector
PIII has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over PIII on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PIII Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $4.68 | 41% below |
| 20 week MA | $7.81 | 65% below |
| 50 week MA | $6.16 | 55% below |
| 100 week MA | $7.25 | 62% below |
| 200 week MA | $34.7 | 92% below |
PIII is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 92% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over PIII on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PIII Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $488.5 | $363.0 | -26% |
| 2022 | $363.0 | $101.5 | -72% |
| 2023 | $101.5 | $70.5 | -31% |
| 2024 | $70.5 | $10.0 | -86% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $3.57 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $3.57 | $2.75 | -23% |
PIII has finished every year since 2021 lower, and it's down 23% so far in 2026.