LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over PHAT overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
PHAT
Phathom Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
PHAT's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
PHAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
PHAT's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
PHAT PE Valuation
PHAT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 29x next year's earnings.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
PHAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect PHAT to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over PHAT on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
PHAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.22 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.00 | +$2.76 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.25 | +$3.42 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.09 | +$3.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.03 | +$2.26 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.76 | +$1.98 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.67 | +$0.51 |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.18 | -$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.29 | -$1.36 |
PHAT is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.00 per share over the past year, against $24.12 at its worst in early 2020.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over PHAT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
PHAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $84.7M | +71% |
| Q2 2026 | $74.3M | +88% |
| Q1 2026 | $58.3M | +104% |
| Q4 2025 | $57.6M | +94% |
| Q3 2025 | $49.5M | +203% |
| Q2 2025 | $39.5M | +439% |
| Q1 2025 | $28.5M | +1392% |
PHAT has the edge over LLY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1% | +31 points |
| Q2 2026 | -5.3% | +146 points |
| Q1 2026 | -27% | +250 points |
| Q4 2025 | -10% | +190 points |
| Q3 2025 | -31% | +402 points |
| Q2 2025 | -152% | +904 points |
| Q1 2025 | -277% | +3382 points |
| Q4 2024 | -200% | N/A |
PHAT's operating margin was −0.1% last quarter, up 31 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2024.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over PHAT on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
PHAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7M | +$15.9M |
| Q2 2026 | -$2M | +$60.9M |
| Q1 2026 | -$15.7M | +$69.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.1M | +$58.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$14.1M | +$49.5M |
| Q2 2025 | -$62.8M | +$7.9M |
| Q1 2025 | -$84.9M | -$15.9M |
| Q4 2024 | -$63.5M | -$19.2M |
PHAT has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$21M over the past year, against −$225M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over PHAT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
PHAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.4% | +1.1M shares |
| 1 year | +16% | +11.5M shares |
| 3 years | +50% | +28.1M shares |
| 5 years | +128% | +47.6M shares |
| Available history | +244% | +60.2M shares |
PHAT has 85M diluted shares, up 16% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
PHAT Net Leverage
PHAT's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
PHAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.6 | Oversold |
PHAT's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
PHAT PE vs Healthcare Sector
PHAT has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over PHAT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
PHAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $6.42 | 3% below |
| 20 week MA | $8.39 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $10.9 | 43% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.72 | 36% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.4 | 40% below |
PHAT is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 40% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over PHAT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
PHAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.0 | $36.3 | +10% |
| 2021 | $36.3 | $19.8 | -46% |
| 2022 | $19.8 | $11.3 | -43% |
| 2023 | $11.3 | $9.13 | -19% |
| 2024 | $9.13 | $8.18 | -10% |
| 2025 | $8.18 | $17.6 | +115% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.6 | $6.23 | -65% |
PHAT's yearly returns have swung widely, from +115% in 2025 to −46% in 2021. It's down 65% so far in 2026.