LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

78
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

LLY has the edge over PCRX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.

PCRX

Pacira BioSciences, Inc.

65
Fundamentals66/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential68/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

PCRX's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

LLY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

PCRX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Unavailable
Healthy
Strong
Strong

PCRX's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue.

LLY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap27x$845-41%
Forward30x$1,427—
Current46x$1,427—
Fair48x$1,466+2.7%
Expensive85x$2,612+83%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LLY has the edge over PCRX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

PCRX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE325x650x975x1300x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE325x650x975x1300x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward11x$36.46—
Cheap19x$17.40-52%
Current39x$36.46—
Fair59x$55.10+51%
Expensive166x$156+328%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PCRX's PE is in its fair range at 39x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

LLY has the edge over PCRX on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

PCRX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Stable
Improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect PCRX's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

LLY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$1,988.49
Downside-15%$1,209.08

Calculated from the latest close: $1,427.28 on Nov 12.

LLY has a better modeled risk to reward balance than PCRX, with less potential downside for the same potential upside.

PCRX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$50.80
Downside-19%$29.68

Calculated from the latest close: $36.46 on Nov 12.

PCRX trails LLY on modeled risk to reward, with more potential downside for the same potential upside.

LLY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$46.82+52%
Q3 2026$30.81+51%
Q2 2026$29.80+95%
Q1 2026$28.15+129%
Q4 2025$22.95+96%
Q3 2025$20.44+121%
Q2 2025$15.30+88%
Q1 2025$12.29+81%
Q4 2024$11.71+102%

LLY has the edge over PCRX on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PCRX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.89Q1 2024: $1.51Q2 2024: $1.39Q3 2024: $-1.95Q4 2024: $-2.15Q1 2025: $-2.24Q2 2025: $-2.74Q3 2025: $0.49Q4 2025: $0.16Q1 2026: $0.13Q2 2026: $0.36Q3 2026: $0.94Forward: $3.23
Q4 2023: $0.89Q1 2024: $1.51Q2 2024: $1.39Q3 2024: $-1.95Q4 2024: $-2.15Q1 2025: $-2.24Q2 2025: $-2.74Q3 2025: $0.49Q4 2025: $0.16Q1 2026: $0.13Q2 2026: $0.36Q3 2026: $0.94Forward: $3.23
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$3.23+244%
Q3 2026$0.94+92%
Q2 2026$0.36+$3.10
Q1 2026$0.13+$2.37
Q4 2025$0.16+$2.31
Q3 2025$0.49+$2.44
Q2 2025-$2.74-297%
Q1 2025-$2.24-248%
Q4 2024-$2.15-342%

PCRX's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.94 over the past year, against $3.91 in mid-2021.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$24.4B+39%
Q2 2026$23B+48%
Q1 2026$19.8B+56%
Q4 2025$19.3B+43%
Q3 2025$17.6B+54%
Q2 2025$15.6B+38%
Q1 2025$12.7B+45%
Q4 2024$13.5B+45%

LLY has the edge over PCRX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PCRX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $181MQ1 2024: $167MQ2 2024: $178MQ3 2024: $169MQ4 2024: --Q1 2025: $169MQ2 2025: $181MQ3 2025: $180MQ4 2025: $197MQ1 2026: $177MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $177M
Q4 2023: $181MQ1 2024: $167MQ2 2024: $178MQ3 2024: $169MQ4 2024: --Q1 2025: $169MQ2 2025: $181MQ3 2025: $180MQ4 2025: $197MQ1 2026: $177MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $177M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$176.7M-1.6%
Q2 2026$192.4M+6.2%
Q1 2026$177.4M+5%
Q3 2025$179.5M+6.5%
Q2 2025$181.1M+1.7%
Q1 2025$168.9M+1.1%
Q3 2024$168.6M+2.8%
Q2 2024$178M+5%

PCRX's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $177M last quarter, down 1.6% from the same quarter a year ago.

LLY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$8.2B+22%
Q2 2026$7.8B+458%
Q1 2026$3B+1826%
Q4 2025$677.9M-31%
Q3 2025$6.7B+186%
Q2 2025$1.4B+476%
Q1 2025$156.1M-13%
Q4 2024$977.8M+$2.4B

LLY has the edge over PCRX on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PCRX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $46MQ1 2024: $46MQ2 2024: $52MQ3 2024: $50MQ4 2024: $31MQ1 2025: $27MQ2 2025: $9MQ3 2025: $57MQ4 2025: $43MQ1 2026: $23MQ2 2026: $56MQ3 2026: $46M
Q4 2023: $46MQ1 2024: $46MQ2 2024: $52MQ3 2024: $50MQ4 2024: $31MQ1 2025: $27MQ2 2025: $9MQ3 2025: $57MQ4 2025: $43MQ1 2026: $23MQ2 2026: $56MQ3 2026: $46M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$46.4M-18%
Q2 2026$56.1M+503%
Q1 2026$23M-15%
Q4 2025$43.5M+40%
Q3 2025$57M+14%
Q2 2025$9.3M-82%
Q1 2025$26.9M-42%
Q4 2024$31M-32%

PCRX generated $169M in free cash flow over the past year, up 36% from the year before.

LLY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-300K shares
1 year-0.6%-5.4M shares
3 years-0.7%-6.4M shares
5 years-1.9%-17.4M shares
Available history-4.5%-42.3M shares

LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.

PCRX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 52MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 51MQ3 2024: 46MQ4 2024: 46MQ1 2025: 47MQ2 2025: 45MQ3 2025: 44MQ4 2025: 45MQ1 2026: 41MQ2 2026: 40MQ3 2026: 41M
Q4 2023: 52MQ1 2024: 52MQ2 2024: 51MQ3 2024: 46MQ4 2024: 46MQ1 2025: 47MQ2 2025: 45MQ3 2025: 44MQ4 2025: 45MQ1 2026: 41MQ2 2026: 40MQ3 2026: 41M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.3%+530K shares
1 year-8.2%-3.6M shares
3 years-22%-11.2M shares
5 years-10%-4.6M shares
Available history-1.6%-683K shares

PCRX has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

LLY Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.2xHealthy
Q2 20261.3xHealthy
Q1 20261.2xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xHealthy
Q1 20252.3xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

PCRX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.3xQ1 2024: -1.0xQ2 2024: -1.5xQ3 2024: -22.1xQ4 2024: 57.0xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 1.9xQ1 2026: 1.9xQ2 2026: 1.5xQ3 2026: 0.4x
Q4 2023: 2.3xQ1 2024: -1.0xQ2 2024: -1.5xQ3 2024: -22.1xQ4 2024: 57.0xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 1.9xQ1 2026: 1.9xQ2 2026: 1.5xQ3 2026: 0.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.4xVery low
Q2 20261.5xHealthy
Q1 20261.9xHealthy
Q4 20251.9xHealthy
Q3 20251.7xHealthy
Q4 202457.0xHigh
Q3 2024-22.1xNet Cash
Q2 2024-1.5xNet Cash

PCRX has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

LLY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.3Neutral
Stochastic84.1Overbought

LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).

PCRX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI77.6Overbought
Stochastic98.3Overbought

PCRX's weekly RSI is 78 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 98 (overbought).

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricLLYSector medianRelative
PE46x26x79% above
PE %482919 pts above

LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

PCRX PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricPCRXSector medianRelative
PE39x26x50% above
PE %37298 pts above

PCRX has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$1,279.412% above
20 week MA$1,218.817% above
50 week MA$1,102.229% above
100 week MA$954.150% above
200 week MA$797.579% above

LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.

PCRX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$33.68.5% above
20 week MA$28.627% above
50 week MA$25.444% above
100 week MA$24.748% above
200 week MA$27.333% above

PCRX has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 33% above its 200-week average.

LLY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$131.5$166.7+27%
2021$166.7$273.1+64%
2022$273.1$367.9+35%
2023$367.9$582.9+58%
2024$582.9$783.2+34%
2025$783.2$1,077.8+38%
2026 YTD$1,077.8$1,427.3+32%

LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.

PCRX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$44.6$59.2+33%
2021$59.2$61.7+4.1%
2022$61.7$39.7-36%
2023$39.7$33.7-15%
2024$33.7$19.7-42%
2025$19.7$26.5+35%
2026 YTD$26.5$36.5+38%

PCRX has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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