LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

78
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

LLY has the edge over PBYI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.

PBYI

Puma Biotechnology, Inc.

48
Fundamentals49/ 100
Valuation23/ 100
Upside potential51/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

PBYI trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

LLY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

PBYI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Strong
Strong

PBYI's cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable.

LLY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap27x$845-41%
Forward30x$1,427—
Current46x$1,427—
Fair48x$1,466+2.7%
Expensive85x$2,612+83%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LLY has the edge over PBYI in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

PBYI PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE23x46x69x92x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE23x46x69x92x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap5.4x$2.49-69%
Fair12x$5.71-29%
Current18x$8.08—
Expensive22x$10.08+25%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

PBYI's PE is in its expensive range at 18x.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.

PBYI Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for PBYI to show an outlook.

LLY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$1,988.49
Downside-15%$1,209.08

Calculated from the latest close: $1,427.28 on Nov 12.

LLY has a better modeled risk to reward balance than PBYI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

PBYI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+40%$11.34
Downside-38%$5.00

Calculated from the latest close: $8.08 on Nov 12.

PBYI trails LLY on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

LLY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$46.82+52%
Q3 2026$30.81+51%
Q2 2026$29.80+95%
Q1 2026$28.15+129%
Q4 2025$22.95+96%
Q3 2025$20.44+121%
Q2 2025$15.30+88%
Q1 2025$12.29+81%
Q4 2024$11.71+102%

LLY has the edge over PBYI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PBYI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.45Q1 2024: $0.32Q2 2024: $0.18Q3 2024: $0.47Q4 2024: $0.62Q1 2025: $0.78Q2 2025: $0.99Q3 2025: $0.75Q4 2025: $0.61Q1 2026: $0.48Q2 2026: $0.52Q3 2026: $0.46
Q4 2023: $0.45Q1 2024: $0.32Q2 2024: $0.18Q3 2024: $0.47Q4 2024: $0.62Q1 2025: $0.78Q2 2025: $0.99Q3 2025: $0.75Q4 2025: $0.61Q1 2026: $0.48Q2 2026: $0.52Q3 2026: $0.46
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026$0.46-39%
Q2 2026$0.52-47%
Q1 2026$0.48-38%
Q4 2025$0.61-1.6%
Q3 2025$0.75+60%
Q2 2025$0.99+450%
Q1 2025$0.78+144%
Q4 2024$0.62+38%

PBYI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.46 over the past year, against $0.99 in mid-2025.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$24.4B+39%
Q2 2026$23B+48%
Q1 2026$19.8B+56%
Q4 2025$19.3B+43%
Q3 2025$17.6B+54%
Q2 2025$15.6B+38%
Q1 2025$12.7B+45%
Q4 2024$13.5B+45%

LLY has the edge over PBYI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PBYI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $72MQ1 2024: $44MQ2 2024: $47MQ3 2024: $81MQ4 2024: $59MQ1 2025: $46MQ2 2025: $52MQ3 2025: $54MQ4 2025: $75MQ1 2026: $45MQ2 2026: $57MQ3 2026: $55M
Q4 2023: $72MQ1 2024: $44MQ2 2024: $47MQ3 2024: $81MQ4 2024: $59MQ1 2025: $46MQ2 2025: $52MQ3 2025: $54MQ4 2025: $75MQ1 2026: $45MQ2 2026: $57MQ3 2026: $55M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$55.1M+1.1%
Q2 2026$56.5M+7.8%
Q1 2026$44.8M-2.6%
Q4 2025$75.5M+28%
Q3 2025$54.5M-32%
Q2 2025$52.4M+11%
Q1 2025$46M+5.1%
Q4 2024$59.1M-18%

PBYI's revenue is growing: $55M last quarter, up 1.1% from the same quarter a year ago.

LLY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$8.2B+22%
Q2 2026$7.8B+458%
Q1 2026$3B+1826%
Q4 2025$677.9M-31%
Q3 2025$6.7B+186%
Q2 2025$1.4B+476%
Q1 2025$156.1M-13%
Q4 2024$977.8M+$2.4B

LLY has the edge over PBYI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

PBYI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $10MQ1 2024: $11MQ2 2024: --Q3 2024: $11MQ4 2024: $16MQ1 2025: $4MQ2 2025: $14MQ3 2025: $10MQ4 2025: $14MQ1 2026: $15MQ2 2026: $2MQ3 2026: $15M
Q4 2023: $10MQ1 2024: $11MQ2 2024: --Q3 2024: $11MQ4 2024: $16MQ1 2025: $4MQ2 2025: $14MQ3 2025: $10MQ4 2025: $14MQ1 2026: $15MQ2 2026: $2MQ3 2026: $15M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$14.6M+51%
Q2 2026$1.6M-88%
Q1 2026$15.4M+334%
Q4 2025$14.5M-7.3%
Q3 2025$9.7M-12%
Q1 2025$3.6M-68%
Q4 2024$15.6M+50%
Q3 2024$11M+4.1%

PBYI generated $46M in free cash flow over the past year, up 7.5% from the year before.

LLY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-300K shares
1 year-0.6%-5.4M shares
3 years-0.7%-6.4M shares
5 years-1.9%-17.4M shares
Available history-4.5%-42.3M shares

LLY has the edge over PBYI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

PBYI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 48MQ1 2024: 48MQ2 2024: 48MQ3 2024: 49MQ4 2024: 49MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 50MQ3 2025: 51MQ4 2025: 51MQ1 2026: 51MQ2 2026: 53MQ3 2026: 53M
Q4 2023: 48MQ1 2024: 48MQ2 2024: 48MQ3 2024: 49MQ4 2024: 49MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 50MQ3 2025: 51MQ4 2025: 51MQ1 2026: 51MQ2 2026: 53MQ3 2026: 53M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1%+520K shares
1 year+4.3%+2.2M shares
3 years+11%+5.3M shares
5 years+30%+12.3M shares
Available history+36%+14.1M shares

PBYI has 53M diluted shares, up 4.3% from a year ago.

LLY Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.2xHealthy
Q2 20261.3xHealthy
Q1 20261.2xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xHealthy
Q1 20252.3xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

PBYI Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.3xQ1 2024: 0.6xQ2 2024: 0.7xQ3 2024: 0.3xQ4 2024: -0.1xQ1 2025: -0.1xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: -0.4xQ4 2025: -0.2xQ1 2026: -0.6xQ2 2026: -0.9xQ3 2026: -1.1x
Q4 2023: 0.3xQ1 2024: 0.6xQ2 2024: 0.7xQ3 2024: 0.3xQ4 2024: -0.1xQ1 2025: -0.1xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: -0.4xQ4 2025: -0.2xQ1 2026: -0.6xQ2 2026: -0.9xQ3 2026: -1.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-1.1xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.9xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.6xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.1xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.1xNet Cash

PBYI has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

LLY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.3Neutral
Stochastic84.1Overbought

LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).

PBYI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.6Neutral
Stochastic35.7Neutral

PBYI's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricLLYSector medianRelative
PE46x26x79% above
PE %482919 pts above

LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

PBYI PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricPBYISector medianRelative
PE18x26x32% below
PE %702941 pts above

PBYI has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$1,279.412% above
20 week MA$1,218.817% above
50 week MA$1,102.229% above
100 week MA$954.150% above
200 week MA$797.579% above

LLY has the edge over PBYI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

PBYI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$9.6516% below
20 week MA$9.1111% below
50 week MA$7.655.6% above
100 week MA$5.7241% above
200 week MA$4.6972% above

PBYI has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 72% above its 200-week average.

LLY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$131.5$166.7+27%
2021$166.7$273.1+64%
2022$273.1$367.9+35%
2023$367.9$582.9+58%
2024$582.9$783.2+34%
2025$783.2$1,077.8+38%
2026 YTD$1,077.8$1,427.3+32%

LLY has the edge over PBYI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

PBYI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$8.66$11.4+32%
2021$11.4$3.46-70%
2022$3.46$4.12+19%
2023$4.12$4.33+5.1%
2024$4.33$3.08-29%
2025$3.08$6.16+100%
2026 YTD$6.16$8.08+31%

PBYI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +100% in 2025 to −70% in 2021. It's up 31% so far in 2026.

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