LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NVAX overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVAX
Novavax, Inc.
NVAX's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVAX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NVAX's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue, profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NVAX PE Valuation
NVAX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 116x next year's earnings.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NVAX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVAX to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NVAX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.08 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.29 | -115% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.35 | -157% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.41 | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.58 | +$3.81 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.89 | +$4.03 |
| Q2 2025 | $2.38 | +$5.02 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.75 | +$5.80 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.23 | +$4.18 |
NVAX has swung to a loss: it lost $0.29 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NVAX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $68.3M | -3% |
| Q2 2026 | $56.7M | -76% |
| Q1 2026 | $139.5M | -79% |
| Q4 2025 | $147.1M | +67% |
| Q3 2025 | $70.4M | -17% |
| Q2 2025 | $239.2M | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $666.7M | +610% |
| Q4 2024 | $88.3M | -70% |
NVAX's revenue has slid since its 2022 peak: $68M last quarter, down 3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -46% | +207 points |
| Q2 2026 | -97% | -139 points |
| Q1 2026 | -11% | -88 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.7% | +158 points |
| Q3 2025 | -253% | -94 points |
| Q2 2025 | 42% | +3.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 77% | +232 points |
| Q4 2024 | -148% | -85 points |
NVAX's operating margin was −46% last quarter, up 207 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
NVAX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$95.3M | -190% |
| Q2 2026 | -$73.4M | +$54.3M |
| Q1 2026 | -$33.7M | +$153M |
| Q4 2025 | -$41.6M | +$133.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $105.8M | +$252M |
| Q2 2025 | -$127.7M | -141% |
| Q1 2025 | -$186.7M | -$96.3M |
| Q4 2024 | -$175.1M | +$10.5M |
NVAX has burned cash in most quarters: −$244M over the past year, against −$384M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NVAX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +350K shares |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +2.6M shares |
| 3 years | +58% | +60.9M shares |
| 5 years | +123% | +90.8M shares |
| Available history | +584% | +141M shares |
NVAX has 165M diluted shares, up 1.6% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NVAX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | 0.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
NVAX's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NVAX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.0 | Neutral |
NVAX's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVAX PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVAX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 26x | — |
NVAX has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVAX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $10.6 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $9.52 | 8% below |
| 50 week MA | $8.98 | 2.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $8.32 | 5.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $8.39 | 4.4% above |
NVAX has slipped below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, though it's still 4.4% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over NVAX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVAX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $3.99 | $129.3 | +3142% |
| 2021 | $129.3 | $177.3 | +37% |
| 2022 | $177.3 | $9.66 | -95% |
| 2023 | $9.66 | $4.80 | -50% |
| 2024 | $4.80 | $8.28 | +72% |
| 2025 | $8.28 | $6.83 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.83 | $8.76 | +28% |
NVAX's yearly returns have swung widely, from +3142% in 2020 to −95% in 2022. It's up 28% so far in 2026.