LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NTRA overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
NTRA's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NTRA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
NTRA's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NTRA PE Valuation
NTRA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NTRA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NTRA's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NTRA on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NTRA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.13 | +$1.16 |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.35 | +$0.56 |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.62 | -$0.15 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.52 | +$0.01 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.29 | -$0.54 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.91 | +$0.53 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.47 | +$1.64 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.53 | +$2.25 |
NTRA is still losing money, but far less than before: $1.13 per share over the past year, against $6.10 at its worst in mid-2022.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NTRA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NTRA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NTRA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $794M | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $752.8M | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $696.6M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $665.5M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $592.2M | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $546.6M | +32% |
| Q1 2025 | $501.8M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $476.1M | +53% |
NTRA's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $794M last quarter, up 34% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -8.6% | +7.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | -10% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | -13% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | -7.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | -20% | -9.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | -16% | +4.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | -14% | +14 points |
NTRA's operating margin was −8.6% last quarter, up 7.9 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over NTRA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NTRA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.3M | -86% |
| Q2 2026 | -$8.6M | -174% |
| Q1 2026 | $18M | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $37.8M | +8.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $37M | +4.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.7M | +$19.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $22.6M | +239% |
| Q4 2024 | $34.8M | +$102.4M |
NTRA has burned cash in most quarters: $52M over the past year, down 51% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over NTRA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NTRA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +788K shares |
| 1 year | +5% | +6.9M shares |
| 3 years | +25% | +28.9M shares |
| 5 years | +56% | +51.5M shares |
| Available history | +107% | +74.5M shares |
NTRA has 144M diluted shares, up 5% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NTRA Net Leverage
NTRA's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NTRA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 43.5 | Neutral |
NTRA's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NTRA PE vs Healthcare Sector
NTRA has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over NTRA on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NTRA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $383.6 | 16% below |
| 20 week MA | $336.8 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $263.7 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $214.8 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $147.1 | 120% above |
NTRA has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 120% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
NTRA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $33.7 | $111.7 | +232% |
| 2021 | $111.7 | $93.8 | -16% |
| 2022 | $93.8 | $41.5 | -56% |
| 2023 | $41.5 | $62.6 | +51% |
| 2024 | $62.6 | $160.3 | +156% |
| 2025 | $160.3 | $233.7 | +46% |
| 2026 YTD | $233.7 | $322.9 | +38% |
NTRA has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.