LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NPCE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NPCE
NeuroPace, Inc.
NPCE's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NPCE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Unavailable |
NPCE's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NPCE PE Valuation
NPCE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NPCE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect NPCE's losses to shrink, with revenue growing.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NPCE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.56 | +$0.18 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.57 | +$0.25 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$0.17 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.66 | +$0.27 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.74 | +$0.25 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.82 | +$0.26 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.82 | +$0.36 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.93 | +$0.34 |
NPCE is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.56 per share over the past year, against $1.91 at its worst in late 2022.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NPCE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $23.1M | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $22.8M | -3% |
| Q1 2026 | $22.1M | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $26.6M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $27.4M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.5M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.5M | +24% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.5M | +19% |
NPCE's revenue fell from its 2025 peak and has held roughly level since: $23M last quarter, down 16% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -9% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -25% | -2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -6.7% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | -9.5% | +11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -29% | +3.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -23% | +19 points |
| Q4 2024 | -17% | +11 points |
NPCE's operating margin was −9% last quarter, up 0.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
NPCE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.8M | -$805K |
| Q2 2026 | -$4M | -$1.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$6M | +$1.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $409K | +$5.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$2M | -$150K |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.3M | +$1.7M |
| Q1 2025 | -$7.5M | +$113K |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.8M | -$1.5M |
NPCE has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$12M over the past year, against −$17M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NPCE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.7% | +242K shares |
| 1 year | +3.7% | +1.2M shares |
| 3 years | +32% | +8.3M shares |
| 5 years | +96% | +16.8M shares |
NPCE has 34M diluted shares, up 3.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $49.5M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
NPCE hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NPCE Net Leverage
NPCE's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NPCE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.3 | Oversold |
NPCE's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NPCE PE vs Healthcare Sector
NPCE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NPCE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.7 | 5.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $14.0 | 14% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.0 | 20% below |
| 100 week MA | $13.3 | 9.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $10.6 | 14% above |
NPCE has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 14% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over NPCE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NPCE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $25.4 | $9.73 | -62% |
| 2022 | $9.73 | $1.36 | -86% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | $10.3 | +658% |
| 2024 | $10.3 | $10.7 | +3.5% |
| 2025 | $10.7 | $16.0 | +50% |
| 2026 YTD | $16.0 | $12.0 | -25% |
NPCE's yearly returns have swung widely, from +658% in 2023 to −86% in 2022. It's down 25% so far in 2026.