LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

78
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

LLY's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 46% and it turned 23% of its revenue into free cash flow. At 46x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 48x. Analysts expect that strong growth to continue.

NERV

Minerva Neurosciences, Inc.

There isn't enough reported data to score NERV yet.

LLY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

NERV Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Weak
Weak
Unavailable
Strong

NERV's balance sheet is currently strong, but its revenue and profitability are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its cash flow.

LLY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap27x$845-41%
Forward30x$1,427โ€”
Current46x$1,427โ€”
Fair48x$1,466+2.7%
Expensive85x$2,612+83%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

NERV PE Valuation

NERV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.

NERV Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for NERV to show an outlook.

LLY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$1,988.49
Downside-15%$1,209.08

Calculated from the latest close: $1,427.28 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare LLY and NERV's risk to reward.

NERV Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknownโ€”
DownsideUnknownโ€”

Calculated from the latest close: $2.38 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare LLY and NERV's risk to reward.

LLY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$46.82+52%
Q3 2026$30.81+51%
Q2 2026$29.80+95%
Q1 2026$28.15+129%
Q4 2025$22.95+96%
Q3 2025$20.44+121%
Q2 2025$15.30+88%
Q1 2025$12.29+81%
Q4 2024$11.71+102%

LLY has the edge over NERV on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

NERV Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-4.61Q1 2024: $-4.43Q2 2024: $-4.40Q3 2024: $-0.40Q4 2024: $0.19Q1 2025: $0.82Q2 2025: $1.48Q3 2025: $-1.85Q4 2025: $-34.67Q1 2026: $-37.03Q2 2026: $-36.74Q3 2026: $-36.57
Q4 2023: $-4.61Q1 2024: $-4.43Q2 2024: $-4.40Q3 2024: $-0.40Q4 2024: $0.19Q1 2025: $0.82Q2 2025: $1.48Q3 2025: $-1.85Q4 2025: $-34.67Q1 2026: $-37.03Q2 2026: $-36.74Q3 2026: $-36.57
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$36.57-$34.72
Q2 2026-$36.74-2582%
Q1 2026-$37.03-4616%
Q4 2025-$34.67-18347%
Q3 2025-$1.85-$1.45
Q2 2025$1.48+$5.88
Q1 2025$0.82+$5.25
Q4 2024$0.19+$4.80

NERV lost $36.57 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$24.4B+39%
Q2 2026$23B+48%
Q1 2026$19.8B+56%
Q4 2025$19.3B+43%
Q3 2025$17.6B+54%
Q2 2025$15.6B+38%
Q1 2025$12.7B+45%
Q4 2024$13.5B+45%

LLY's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $24.4B last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.

NERV Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --

NERV's revenue has slid since its 2020 peak: $0 last quarter.

LLY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
Q4 2023: โˆ’$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$8.2B+22%
Q2 2026$7.8B+458%
Q1 2026$3B+1826%
Q4 2025$677.9M-31%
Q3 2025$6.7B+186%
Q2 2025$1.4B+476%
Q1 2025$156.1M-13%
Q4 2024$977.8M+$2.4B

LLY has the edge over NERV on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

NERV Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: โˆ’$6MQ1 2024: โˆ’$6MQ2 2024: โˆ’$4MQ3 2024: โˆ’$4MQ4 2024: โˆ’$5MQ1 2025: โˆ’$4MQ2 2025: โˆ’$2MQ3 2025: โˆ’$3MQ4 2025: โˆ’$4MQ1 2026: โˆ’$5MQ2 2026: โˆ’$13MQ3 2026: โˆ’$8M
Q4 2023: โˆ’$6MQ1 2024: โˆ’$6MQ2 2024: โˆ’$4MQ3 2024: โˆ’$4MQ4 2024: โˆ’$5MQ1 2025: โˆ’$4MQ2 2025: โˆ’$2MQ3 2025: โˆ’$3MQ4 2025: โˆ’$4MQ1 2026: โˆ’$5MQ2 2026: โˆ’$13MQ3 2026: โˆ’$8M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$8.1M-$5.2M
Q2 2026-$13.3M-$11.3M
Q1 2026-$5.4M-$1.4M
Q4 2025-$4.5M+$686K
Q3 2025-$2.9M+$1.4M
Q2 2025-$2M+$1.9M
Q1 2025-$4.1M+$2M
Q4 2024-$5.2M+$824.6K

NERV has burned cash in almost every quarter: โˆ’$31M over the past year, against โˆ’$14M the year before.

LLY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-300K shares
1 year-0.6%-5.4M shares
3 years-0.7%-6.4M shares
5 years-1.9%-17.4M shares
Available history-4.5%-42.3M shares

LLY has the edge over NERV on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

NERV Total Shares

Q4 2023: 7MQ1 2024: 8MQ2 2024: 8MQ3 2024: 8MQ4 2024: 8MQ1 2025: 8MQ2 2025: 8MQ3 2025: 8MQ4 2025: 8MQ1 2026: 44MQ2 2026: 79MQ3 2026: 75M
Q4 2023: 7MQ1 2024: 8MQ2 2024: 8MQ3 2024: 8MQ4 2024: 8MQ1 2025: 8MQ2 2025: 8MQ3 2025: 8MQ4 2025: 8MQ1 2026: 44MQ2 2026: 79MQ3 2026: 75M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-4.9%-3.9M shares
1 year+894%+67.7M shares
3 years+894%+67.7M shares
5 years+1309%+69.9M shares
Available history+1443%+70.4M shares

NERV has 75M diluted shares, up 894% from a year ago.

LLY Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.2xHealthy
Q2 20261.3xHealthy
Q1 20261.2xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xHealthy
Q1 20252.3xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

NERV Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q4 2020-13.6xNet Cash

NERV has more cash than debt.

LLY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.3Neutral
Stochastic84.1Overbought

LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).

NERV Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI30.7Neutral
Stochastic11.3Oversold

NERV's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 11 (oversold).

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricLLYSector medianRelative
PE46x26x79% above
PE %482919 pts above

LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

NERV PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricNERVSector medianRelative
PEN/A26xโ€”

NERV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$1,279.412% above
20 week MA$1,218.817% above
50 week MA$1,102.229% above
100 week MA$954.150% above
200 week MA$797.579% above

LLY has the edge over NERV on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

NERV Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$2.7012% below
20 week MA$3.7336% below
50 week MA$4.6549% below
100 week MA$3.4230% below
200 week MA$4.0241% below

NERV is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 41% below its 200-week average.

LLY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$131.5$166.7+27%
2021$166.7$273.1+64%
2022$273.1$367.9+35%
2023$367.9$582.9+58%
2024$582.9$783.2+34%
2025$783.2$1,077.8+38%
2026 YTD$1,077.8$1,427.3+32%

LLY has the edge over NERV on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

NERV Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$54.2$19.7-64%
2021$19.7$7.72-61%
2022$7.72$2.48-68%
2023$2.48$6.15+148%
2024$6.15$2.26-63%
2025$2.26$4.19+85%
2026 YTD$4.19$2.38-43%

NERV's yearly returns have swung widely, from +148% in 2023 to โˆ’68% in 2022. It's down 43% so far in 2026.

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