LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NEPH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NEPH
Nephros, Inc.
NEPH offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NEPH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NEPH's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NEPH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $3.31 | — |
| Current | 18x | $3.31 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $4.78 | +44% |
| Fair | 34x | $6.13 | +85% |
| Expensive | 50x | $8.99 | +172% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NEPH has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
NEPH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for NEPH, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NEPH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NEPH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.23 | +30% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.18 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.16 | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.07 | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.11 | +1000% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.14 | +$0.23 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.13 | +$0.26 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.08 | +$0.22 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.01 | +$0.16 |
NEPH earned $0.18 per share over the past year, up 29% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NEPH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NEPH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NEPH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.6M | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $6M | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.2M | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.7M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.8M | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.4M | +36% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.9M | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.9M | +19% |
NEPH's revenue has grown year over year for eight quarters in a row: $6M last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.9% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +15 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9% | -9.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4% | -7.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.6% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.6% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +17 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | +28 points |
NEPH's operating margin was 8.9% last quarter, up 2.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 259% versus its history, compared with NEPH at up 58%.
NEPH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -$1.7M | -619% |
| Q4 2025 | $230K | -82% |
| Q1 2025 | $322K | +$994K |
| Q4 2022 | -$195K | +$140K |
| Q3 2022 | -$170K | +$753K |
| Q2 2022 | -$1.2M | -$1.1M |
| Q1 2022 | -$1.8M | -$1.8M |
| Q4 2021 | -$335K | +$1.2M |
NEPH has burned cash in most quarters: −$910,000 over the past year, against $331,000 the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over NEPH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NEPH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.8% | +91.3K shares |
| 1 year | +1.5% | +163K shares |
| 3 years | +7.1% | +743K shares |
| 5 years | +12% | +1.2M shares |
| Available history | +49% | +3.7M shares |
NEPH has 11M diluted shares, up 1.5% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NEPH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -5.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -26.7x | Net Cash |
NEPH has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NEPH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.1 | Oversold |
NEPH's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 13 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NEPH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NEPH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 26x | 29% below |
| PE % | 1 | 29 | 28 pts below |
NEPH has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over NEPH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NEPH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.48 | 4.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $3.80 | 13% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.82 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $3.46 | 4.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $2.69 | 23% above |
NEPH has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 23% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over NEPH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NEPH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.1 | $8.08 | -20% |
| 2021 | $8.08 | $6.00 | -26% |
| 2022 | $6.00 | $1.05 | -83% |
| 2023 | $1.05 | $3.46 | +230% |
| 2024 | $3.46 | $1.49 | -57% |
| 2025 | $1.49 | $4.93 | +231% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.93 | $3.31 | -33% |
NEPH's yearly returns have swung widely, from +231% in 2025 to −83% in 2022. It's down 33% so far in 2026.