LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over NAGE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NAGE
Niagen Bioscience Inc
NAGE trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NAGE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
NAGE's balance sheet is currently strong, and its profitability is stable, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NAGE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $2.05 | -3.7% |
| Current | 18x | $2.13 | — |
| Fair | 27x | $3.30 | +55% |
| Expensive | 79x | $9.47 | +345% |
| Forward | 217x | $2.13 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NAGE has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
NAGE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NAGE's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NAGE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.01 | -92% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.12 | -52% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.18 | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.21 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.20 | +82% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.25 | +2400% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.22 | +$0.24 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.18 | +$0.23 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.11 | +$0.18 |
NAGE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.12 over the past year, against $0.25 in late 2025.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NAGE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $27.2M | -20% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.8M | -4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $31.5M | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $33.8M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $34M | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $31.1M | +37% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.5M | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $29.1M | +37% |
NAGE's revenue fell from its 2025 peak and has held roughly level since: $27M last quarter, down 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.8% | -18 points |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4% | -7.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | -12 points |
| Q3 2025 | 12% | +6.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 10% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +19 points |
| Q4 2024 | 24% | +25 points |
NAGE's operating margin was −5.8% last quarter, down 18 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NAGE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6M | -29% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.8M | +122% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.2M | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | $679K | -92% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.7M | +5.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3M | +$1.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $7.9M | +2572% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.6M | +1222% |
NAGE still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2024 peak: $5M over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
NAGE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -4.1% | -3.4M shares |
| 1 year | -8.6% | -7.5M shares |
| 3 years | +5.5% | +4.1M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +10.9M shares |
| Available history | +28% | +17.5M shares |
NAGE has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $2.8M |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4M |
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
NAGE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -11.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -4.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -3.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
NAGE has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
NAGE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 22.9 | Oversold |
| Stochastic | 3.5 | Oversold |
NAGE's weekly RSI is 23 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 4 (oversold).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NAGE PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NAGE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 26x | 31% below |
| PE % | 22 | 29 | 7 pts below |
NAGE has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NAGE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.50 | 15% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.93 | 27% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.14 | 49% below |
| 100 week MA | $6.23 | 66% below |
| 200 week MA | $4.35 | 51% below |
NAGE is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 51% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over NAGE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NAGE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.47 | $4.99 | +12% |
| 2021 | $4.99 | $4.13 | -17% |
| 2022 | $4.13 | $1.50 | -64% |
| 2023 | $1.50 | $1.43 | -4.7% |
| 2024 | $1.43 | $5.52 | +286% |
| 2025 | $5.52 | $6.64 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.64 | $2.13 | -68% |
NAGE's yearly returns have swung widely, from +286% in 2024 to −64% in 2022. It's down 68% so far in 2026.