LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MRK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc.
MRK's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MRK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Weak |
MRK's cash flow is currently strong, and its revenue and profitability are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over MRK in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MRK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $14.38 | -90% |
| Forward | 17x | $147 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $20.03 | -86% |
| Expensive | 58x | $55.80 | -62% |
| Current | 151x | $147 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MRK's PE is in its expensive range at 151x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over MRK on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MRK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MRK's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MRK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.42 | +768% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.97 | -87% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.25 | -81% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.55 | -48% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.28 | +8% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.58 | +59% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.50 | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.88 | +664% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.74 | +4714% |
MRK's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.97 over the past year, against $7.58 in late 2025.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MRK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MRK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MRK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.6B | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.3B | +4.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $16.4B | +5% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.3B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.8B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $15.5B | -1.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.6B | +6.8% |
MRK's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $18.1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | -8.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | -4.1% | -36 points |
| Q1 2026 | -22% | -60 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -5.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +15 points |
| Q2 2025 | 32% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | +41 points |
MRK's operating margin was 31% last quarter, down 8.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MRK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MRK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.5B | -19% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.5B | +77% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.9B | +150% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | -27% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.8B | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B | -48% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | -47% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.5B | +$3.3B |
MRK generated $14.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 13% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MRK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +8M shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -2.7% | -68M shares |
| 5 years | -2.3% | -58M shares |
| Available history | -8.4% | -226M shares |
MRK has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $653M |
| Q2 2026 | $757M |
| Q1 2026 | $874M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $489M |
MRK spent $3.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 18% from the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over MRK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MRK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.4x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
MRK's net debt is about 5.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from a year a year ago.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MRK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 61.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.3 | Neutral |
MRK's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 69 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over MRK on valuation relative to its sector.
MRK PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MRK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 151x | 26x | 486% above |
| PE % | 98 | 29 | 69 pts above |
MRK is trading at 151x earnings, a 486% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
MRK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $146.6 | 0.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $141.1 | 4.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $125.2 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $105.9 | 39% above |
| 200 week MA | $109.8 | 34% above |
MRK has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 34% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
MRK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $87.3 | $76.4 | -12% |
| 2021 | $76.4 | $75.7 | -0.9% |
| 2022 | $75.7 | $111.9 | +48% |
| 2023 | $111.9 | $109.0 | -2.5% |
| 2024 | $109.0 | $99.7 | -8.5% |
| 2025 | $99.7 | $106.8 | +7.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $106.8 | $147.0 | +38% |
MRK has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.