LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MOH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
MOH's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MOH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
MOH's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its profitability is under pressure.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MOH PE Valuation
MOH has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over MOH on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MOH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MOH, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MOH on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MOH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.35 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.60 | -104% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.18 | -99% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.74 | -82% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.92 | -56% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.14 | -18% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.28 | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.70 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $20.42 | +8.8% |
MOH has swung to a loss: it lost $0.60 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MOH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MOH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MOH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.1B | -3.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.9B | -4.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.8B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.4B | +8.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.5B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.1B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.5B | +16% |
MOH's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $11.1B last quarter, down 3.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8% | -3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | -1.4% | -5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.9% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 3.6% | +0.1 points |
MOH's operating margin was 1% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MOH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MOH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$196M | -$33M |
| Q2 2026 | -$324M | +$20M |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +528% |
| Q4 2025 | -$297M | -$62M |
| Q3 2025 | -$163M | -119% |
| Q2 2025 | -$344M | -$98M |
| Q1 2025 | $168M | -10% |
| Q4 2024 | -$235M | +$450M |
MOH's free cash flow has turned positive after two years mostly in the red: $238M over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MOH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -1M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -6.6M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -7M shares |
| Available history | -20% | -12.7M shares |
MOH has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $500M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $500M |
| Q4 2024 | $500M |
MOH hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MOH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
MOH has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MOH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 55.8 | Neutral |
MOH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 56 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over MOH on valuation relative to its sector.
MOH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MOH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 1,152x | 26x | 4,356% above |
| PE % | 100 | 29 | 71 pts above |
MOH has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over MOH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MOH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $202.2 | 3.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $205.7 | 2% above |
| 50 week MA | $183.7 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $216.0 | 2.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $271.6 | 23% below |
MOH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 23% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MOH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MOH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $136.1 | $207.1 | +52% |
| 2021 | $207.1 | $316.7 | +53% |
| 2022 | $316.7 | $335.1 | +5.8% |
| 2023 | $335.1 | $361.3 | +7.8% |
| 2024 | $361.3 | $292.2 | -19% |
| 2025 | $292.2 | $164.8 | -44% |
| 2026 YTD | $164.8 | $209.9 | +27% |
MOH has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 27% so far in 2026.