LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has a slight edge over MMSI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
MMSI
Merit Medical Systems, Inc.
MMSI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MMSI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MMSI's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MMSI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $86.69 | — |
| Current | 32x | $86.69 | — |
| Cheap | 42x | $112 | +29% |
| Fair | 49x | $132 | +52% |
| Expensive | 84x | $223 | +157% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MMSI has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
MMSI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MMSI, with profitability improving.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MMSI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MMSI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.49 | +68% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.67 | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.43 | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.32 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.13 | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -4.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.97 | -1.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.04 | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.03 | +25% |
MMSI earned $2.67 per share over the past year, up 37% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MMSI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MMSI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MMSI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $416.2M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $418.8M | +9.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $381.9M | +7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $393.9M | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $384.2M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $382.5M | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $355.4M | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $355.2M | +9.4% |
MMSI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $416M last quarter, up 8.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | +3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | 0 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -0.1 points |
MMSI's operating margin was 14% last quarter, up 3 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
MMSI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $52.9M | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $51.9M | -25% |
| Q1 2026 | $24.7M | +26% |
| Q4 2025 | $74M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $52.5M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $69.6M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $19.5M | -20% |
| Q4 2024 | $65.3M | +18% |
MMSI's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $204M over the past year, down 1.6% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over MMSI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MMSI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +373K shares |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +460K shares |
| 3 years | +3.4% | +2M shares |
| 5 years | +4.9% | +2.8M shares |
| Available history | +7.4% | +4.1M shares |
MMSI has 60M diluted shares, up 0.8% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MMSI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
MMSI has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MMSI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 40.0 | Neutral |
MMSI's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MMSI PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MMSI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 32x | 26x | 26% above |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
MMSI has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over MMSI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MMSI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $87.8 | 1.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $85.2 | 1.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $78.5 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $85.8 | 1.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $82.9 | 4.5% above |
MMSI's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 4.5% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MMSI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MMSI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.3 | $54.5 | +74% |
| 2021 | $54.5 | $63.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $63.7 | $70.9 | +11% |
| 2023 | $70.9 | $76.0 | +7.2% |
| 2024 | $76.0 | $97.3 | +28% |
| 2025 | $97.3 | $87.4 | -10% |
| 2026 YTD | $87.4 | $86.7 | -0.8% |
MMSI has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 0.8% so far in 2026.