LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MDAI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
MDAI
Spectral AI, Inc.
MDAI trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MDAI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
MDAI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MDAI PE Valuation
MDAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
MDAI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses growing | |
| Strong decline | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MDAI's losses to grow, with revenue declining.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
MDAI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.33 | +$0.37 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.51 | +$0.04 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.29 | +$0.56 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.75 | +$0.05 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.70 | +$0.79 |
MDAI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.33 per share over the past year, against $1.49 at its worst in mid-2024.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MDAI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.5M | -30% |
| Q1 2026 | $4M | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.1M | -46% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.8M | -54% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.1M | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.7M | +6% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.6M | +44% |
| Q3 2024 | $8.2M | +138% |
MDAI's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $4M last quarter, down 30% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -123% | -81 points |
| Q1 2026 | -49% | -36 points |
| Q4 2025 | -55% | -40 points |
| Q3 2025 | -88% | -77 points |
| Q2 2025 | -42% | -9.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | -13% | +21 points |
| Q4 2024 | -15% | +41 points |
| Q3 2024 | -11% | +110 points |
MDAI's operating margin was −123% last quarter, down 81 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2023.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MDAI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$4.1M | -$735K |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.7M | -$2.2M |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.6M | -644% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.5M | -$875K |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.4M | +$2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.5M | +$1.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $469K | +$2.8M |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.6M | +$8.9M |
MDAI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$13M over the past year, against −$6M the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MDAI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1% | +324K shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +6.7M shares |
MDAI has 32M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MDAI Net Leverage
MDAI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MDAI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.5 | Neutral |
MDAI's weekly RSI is 38 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MDAI PE vs Healthcare Sector
MDAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MDAI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1.53 | 12% below |
| 20 week MA | $1.60 | 16% below |
| 50 week MA | $1.67 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $1.81 | 25% below |
| 200 week MA | $3.38 | 60% below |
MDAI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 60% below its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MDAI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MDAI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.72 | $9.82 | +1% |
| 2022 | $9.82 | $10.2 | +3.9% |
| 2023 | $10.2 | $2.46 | -76% |
| 2024 | $2.46 | $2.75 | +12% |
| 2025 | $2.75 | $1.42 | -48% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.42 | $1.35 | -4.9% |
MDAI has finished higher in three of the last five years. It's down 4.9% so far in 2026.