LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MD overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
MD
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
MD's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MD Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
MD's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MD PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $19.61 | -38% |
| Fair | 13x | $23.57 | -25% |
| Forward | 13x | $31.40 | — |
| Current | 17x | $31.40 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $34.33 | +9.3% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MD has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over MD on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MD Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MD's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MD on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MD Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.45 | +33% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.84 | -3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.09 | +61% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.06 | +$3.06 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.94 | +$3.13 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.91 | +$4.97 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.30 | +$4.33 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.00 | -$0.15 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.19 | -$0.46 |
MD earned $1.84 per share over the past year, down 3.7% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MD on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MD Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $501.4M | +1.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $487.8M | +4% |
| Q1 2026 | $476.2M | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $493.8M | -1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $492.9M | -3.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $468.8M | -7% |
| Q1 2025 | $458.4M | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $502.4M | +1.2% |
MD's revenue fell from its 2019 peak and has held roughly level since: $501M last quarter, up 1.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 13% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.8% | +1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.9% | +2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +7.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +44 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.8% | +30 points |
MD's operating margin was 13% last quarter, down 0.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over MD on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MD Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.9M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $123.9M | -6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | -$136.1M | -$15.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $108.8M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $131.9M | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $132.7M | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | -$120.8M | +$9.8M |
| Q4 2024 | $129.6M | +115% |
MD still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $210M over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MD Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -1.7M shares |
| 1 year | -6.9% | -5.9M shares |
| 3 years | -3.9% | -3.2M shares |
| 5 years | -7.4% | -6.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.3% | -3.6M shares |
MD has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $83M |
| Q2 2026 | $42.7M |
| Q1 2026 | $21.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $64M |
| Q3 2025 | $20.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $209,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $643,000 |
MD spent $211M buying back its own shares over the past year, about nine times what it spent the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MD Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 12.9x | High |
MD has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MD Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 77.7 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 80.5 | Overbought |
MD's weekly RSI is 78 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MD PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MD | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 26x | 34% below |
| PE % | 72 | 29 | 43 pts above |
MD has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
MD Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $28.5 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $27.3 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $24.0 | 31% above |
| 100 week MA | $19.6 | 60% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.6 | 101% above |
MD is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 101% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.
MD Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $27.2 | $23.9 | -12% |
| 2021 | $23.9 | $27.6 | +15% |
| 2022 | $27.6 | $14.9 | -46% |
| 2023 | $14.9 | $9.30 | -38% |
| 2024 | $9.30 | $13.5 | +45% |
| 2025 | $13.5 | $21.9 | +62% |
| 2026 YTD | $21.9 | $31.4 | +44% |
MD has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.