LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over MCK overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
MCK
McKesson Corporation
MCK has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MCK Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
MCK's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
MCK PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $654 | -39% |
| Forward | 22x | $1,077 | — |
| Fair | 26x | $1,019 | -5.4% |
| Current | 28x | $1,077 | — |
| Expensive | 31x | $1,206 | +12% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MCK has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over MCK on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MCK Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MCK, with profitability holding steady.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over MCK on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MCK Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $48.95 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $38.80 | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $37.28 | +49% |
| Q1 2026 | $38.38 | +49% |
| Q4 2025 | $34.66 | +59% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.02 | +66% |
| Q2 2025 | $24.97 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $25.72 | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.85 | -0.9% |
MCK earned $38.80 per share over the past year, up 21% from the year before.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over MCK on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over MCK on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MCK Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $111B | +7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $105.4B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $96.3B | +6% |
| Q4 2025 | $106.2B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $103.2B | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $97.8B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $90.8B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $95.3B | +18% |
MCK's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $111B last quarter, up 7.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.4% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.4% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 1.8% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.3% | +0.5 points |
MCK's operating margin was 1.4% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
MCK Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | -$332M | +$697M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.3B | -56% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +$3.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | +$457M |
| Q1 2025 | $7.6B | +91% |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.5B | -1630% |
MCK generated $7.1B in free cash flow over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
MCK Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.1% | -2.5M shares |
| 1 year | -6.2% | -7.7M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -18.1M shares |
| 5 years | -25% | -39.1M shares |
| Available history | -35% | -63.3M shares |
MCK has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $894M |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.7B |
| Q4 2025 | $680M |
| Q3 2025 | $818M |
| Q2 2025 | $581M |
| Q1 2025 | $300M |
| Q4 2024 | $827M |
MCK spent $6.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 168% from the year before.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
MCK Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
MCK has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
MCK Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.3 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 82.8 | Overbought |
MCK's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
MCK PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | MCK | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 26x | 7.4% above |
| PE % | 67 | 29 | 38 pts above |
MCK has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
MCK Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $980.7 | 9.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $906.6 | 19% above |
| 50 week MA | $865.9 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $781.2 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $628.8 | 71% above |
MCK is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 71% above its 200-week average.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over MCK on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MCK Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.4 | $170.8 | +22% |
| 2021 | $170.8 | $240.8 | +41% |
| 2022 | $240.8 | $383.7 | +59% |
| 2023 | $383.7 | $463.0 | +21% |
| 2024 | $463.0 | $576.6 | +25% |
| 2025 | $576.6 | $828.3 | +44% |
| 2026 YTD | $828.3 | $1,077.1 | +30% |
MCK has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 30% so far in 2026.