LKQ

LKQ Corporation

28
Fundamentals36/ 100
Valuation16/ 100
Upside potential13/ 100
Risk potential59/ 100

LKQ trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

NIO

NIO Inc.

56
Fundamentals77/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential58/ 100
Risk potential27/ 100

NIO has the edge over LKQ overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.

LKQ Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Stable
Strong

LKQ's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue, profitability and cash flow are stable.

NIO Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Stable
Stable
Unavailable

NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

LKQ PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE6.8x14x20x27x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE6.8x14x20x27x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward9.2x$19.71—
Cheap13x$12.47-37%
Fair14x$13.82-30%
Expensive18x$17.41-12%
Current20x$19.71—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LKQ's PE is in its expensive range at 20x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.2x, in its cheap range.

NIO PE Valuation

NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LKQ Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Decline
Stable
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect LKQ's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

NIO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

NIO has the edge over LKQ on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

LKQ Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+9%$21.45
Downside-59%$8.06

Calculated from the latest close: $19.71 on Nov 12.

LKQ trails NIO on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

NIO Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+38%$4.21
Downside-27%$2.22

Calculated from the latest close: $3.05 on Nov 12.

NIO has a better modeled risk to reward balance than LKQ, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

LKQ Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $3.49Q1 2024: $3.07Q2 2024: $2.72Q3 2024: $2.67Q4 2024: $2.62Q1 2025: $2.68Q2 2025: $2.73Q3 2025: $2.70Q4 2025: $2.35Q1 2026: $2.01Q2 2026: $1.79Q3 2026: $0.99Forward: $2.15
Q4 2023: $3.49Q1 2024: $3.07Q2 2024: $2.72Q3 2024: $2.67Q4 2024: $2.62Q1 2025: $2.68Q2 2025: $2.73Q3 2025: $2.70Q4 2025: $2.35Q1 2026: $2.01Q2 2026: $1.79Q3 2026: $0.99Forward: $2.15
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.15+117%
Q3 2026$0.99-63%
Q2 2026$1.79-34%
Q1 2026$2.01-25%
Q4 2025$2.35-10%
Q3 2025$2.70+1.1%
Q2 2025$2.73+0.4%
Q1 2025$2.68-13%
Q4 2024$2.62-25%

LKQ has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

NIO Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $-1.93Q4 2023: $-1.87Q1 2024: $-1.82Q2 2024: $-1.64Q3 2024: $-1.61Q4 2024: $-1.66Q1 2025: $-1.76Q2 2025: $-1.74Q3 2025: $-1.59Q4 2025: $-1.06Q1 2026: $-0.60Q2 2026: $-0.29
Q3 2023: $-1.93Q4 2023: $-1.87Q1 2024: $-1.82Q2 2024: $-1.64Q3 2024: $-1.61Q4 2024: $-1.66Q1 2025: $-1.76Q2 2025: $-1.74Q3 2025: $-1.59Q4 2025: $-1.06Q1 2026: $-0.60Q2 2026: $-0.29
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026-$0.29+$1.45
Q1 2026-$0.60+$1.16
Q4 2025-$1.06+$0.60
Q3 2025-$1.59+$0.02
Q2 2025-$1.74-$0.10
Q1 2025-$1.76+$0.06
Q4 2024-$1.66+$0.21
Q3 2024-$1.61+$0.32

NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.

LKQ Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $3.5BQ1 2024: $3.7BQ2 2024: $3.7BQ3 2024: $3.6BQ4 2024: $3.4BQ1 2025: $3.5BQ2 2025: $3.6BQ3 2025: $3.5BQ4 2025: $3.3BQ1 2026: $3.5BQ2 2026: $3.4BQ3 2026: $3.3B
Q4 2023: $3.5BQ1 2024: $3.7BQ2 2024: $3.7BQ3 2024: $3.6BQ4 2024: $3.4BQ1 2025: $3.5BQ2 2025: $3.6BQ3 2025: $3.5BQ4 2025: $3.3BQ1 2026: $3.5BQ2 2026: $3.4BQ3 2026: $3.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$3.3B-5.1%
Q2 2026$3.4B-6.4%
Q1 2026$3.5B+0.2%
Q4 2025$3.3B-1.3%
Q3 2025$3.5B-2.4%
Q2 2025$3.6B-1.9%
Q1 2025$3.5B-6.5%
Q4 2024$3.4B-4.1%

LKQ's revenue grew through 2021 and has held roughly level since: $3.3B last quarter, down 5.1% from the same quarter a year ago.

NIO Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $2.9BQ4 2023: $2.6BQ1 2024: $1.5BQ2 2024: $2.6BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $3BQ1 2025: $1.8BQ2 2025: $2.9BQ3 2025: $3.3BQ4 2025: $5.2BQ1 2026: $3.8BQ2 2026: $4.8B
Q3 2023: $2.9BQ4 2023: $2.6BQ1 2024: $1.5BQ2 2024: $2.6BQ3 2024: $2.8BQ4 2024: $3BQ1 2025: $1.8BQ2 2025: $2.9BQ3 2025: $3.3BQ4 2025: $5.2BQ1 2026: $3.8BQ2 2026: $4.8B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$4.8B+69%
Q1 2026$3.8B+112%
Q4 2025$5.2B+76%
Q3 2025$3.3B+17%
Q2 2025$2.9B+9%
Q1 2025$1.8B+21%
Q4 2024$3B+15%
Q3 2024$2.8B-2.1%

NIO has the edge over LKQ on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

LKQ Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $87MQ1 2024: $187MQ2 2024: $133MQ3 2024: $341MQ4 2024: $149MQ1 2025: −$57MQ2 2025: $243MQ3 2025: $387MQ4 2025: $274MQ1 2026: −$96MQ2 2026: $60MQ3 2026: $372M
Q4 2023: $87MQ1 2024: $187MQ2 2024: $133MQ3 2024: $341MQ4 2024: $149MQ1 2025: −$57MQ2 2025: $243MQ3 2025: $387MQ4 2025: $274MQ1 2026: −$96MQ2 2026: $60MQ3 2026: $372M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$372M-3.9%
Q2 2026$60M-75%
Q1 2026-$96M-$39M
Q4 2025$274M+84%
Q3 2025$387M+13%
Q2 2025$243M+83%
Q1 2025-$57M-130%
Q4 2024$149M+71%

LKQ still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $610M over the past year.

NIO Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: --Q4 2023: $137MQ1 2024: $0Q2 2024: −$2.2BQ3 2024: $0Q4 2024: −$391MQ1 2025: $0Q2 2025: −$2.1BQ3 2025: $0Q4 2025: $0Q1 2026: $0Q2 2026: $0
Q3 2023: --Q4 2023: $137MQ1 2024: $0Q2 2024: −$2.2BQ3 2024: $0Q4 2024: −$391MQ1 2025: $0Q2 2025: −$2.1BQ3 2025: $0Q4 2025: $0Q1 2026: $0Q2 2026: $0
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$0+$2.1B
Q1 2026$0$0
Q4 2025$0+$391.3M
Q3 2025$0$0
Q2 2025-$2.1B+$73.9M
Q1 2025$0$0
Q4 2024-$391.3M-386%
Q2 2024-$2.2B+$337.9M

NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.

LKQ Total Shares

Q4 2023: 268MQ1 2024: 268MQ2 2024: 266MQ3 2024: 263MQ4 2024: 264MQ1 2025: 260MQ2 2025: 258MQ3 2025: 257MQ4 2025: 258MQ1 2026: 256MQ2 2026: 255MQ3 2026: 253M
Q4 2023: 268MQ1 2024: 268MQ2 2024: 266MQ3 2024: 263MQ4 2024: 264MQ1 2025: 260MQ2 2025: 258MQ3 2025: 257MQ4 2025: 258MQ1 2026: 256MQ2 2026: 255MQ3 2026: 253M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.7%-1.8M shares
1 year-1.7%-4.4M shares
3 years-5.8%-15.5M shares
5 years-14%-42M shares
Available history-19%-58.1M shares

LKQ has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

NIO Total Shares

Q3 2023: 1.7BQ4 2023: 1.8BQ1 2024: 2BQ2 2024: 2BQ3 2024: 2.1BQ4 2024: 2.1BQ1 2025: 2.1BQ2 2025: 2.2BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.5BQ1 2026: 2.5BQ2 2026: 2.5B
Q3 2023: 1.7BQ4 2023: 1.8BQ1 2024: 2BQ2 2024: 2BQ3 2024: 2.1BQ4 2024: 2.1BQ1 2025: 2.1BQ2 2025: 2.2BQ3 2025: 2.4BQ4 2025: 2.5BQ1 2026: 2.5BQ2 2026: 2.5B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.6%+15.6M shares
1 year+12%+267M shares
3 years+51%+844M shares
5 years+60%+933M shares
Available history+143%+1.5B shares

NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.

LKQ Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -0.2xQ1 2024: -0.2xQ2 2024: -0.2xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: -0.2xQ1 2025: -0.1xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: -0.2xQ4 2025: -0.2xQ1 2026: -0.3xQ2 2026: -0.2xQ3 2026: -0.3x
Q4 2023: -0.2xQ1 2024: -0.2xQ2 2024: -0.2xQ3 2024: -0.2xQ4 2024: -0.2xQ1 2025: -0.1xQ2 2025: -0.2xQ3 2025: -0.2xQ4 2025: -0.2xQ1 2026: -0.3xQ2 2026: -0.2xQ3 2026: -0.3x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.3xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.2xNet Cash
Q1 2026-0.3xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.1xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.2xNet Cash

LKQ has more cash than debt.

NIO Net Leverage

NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

LKQ Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI36.1Neutral
Stochastic26.9Neutral

LKQ's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).

NIO Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI30.7Neutral
Stochastic6.9Oversold

NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).

LKQ PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricLKQSector medianRelative
PE20x18x11% above
PE %914744 pts above

LKQ is trading at 20x earnings, a 11% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LKQ Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$20.75% below
20 week MA$23.315% below
50 week MA$27.328% below
100 week MA$31.738% below
200 week MA$40.051% below

LKQ is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 51% below its 200-week average.

NIO Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$3.369.2% below
20 week MA$4.0124% below
50 week MA$4.8137% below
100 week MA$4.8537% below
200 week MA$6.0349% below

NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.

LKQ Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$35.9$36.3+1.1%
2021$36.3$57.7+59%
2022$57.7$53.6-7.1%
2023$53.6$47.8-11%
2024$47.8$36.9-23%
2025$36.9$30.6-17%
2026 YTD$30.6$19.7-36%

LKQ has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

NIO Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$2.42$45.8+1791%
2021$45.8$30.5-33%
2022$30.5$11.0-64%
2023$11.0$9.07-17%
2024$9.07$4.48-51%
2025$4.48$5.10+14%
2026 YTD$5.10$3.05-40%

NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.

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