LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID has the edge over SW overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
SW
Smurfit Westrock Plc
SW has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
SW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
SW's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9x | $7.99 | -82% |
| Forward | 15x | $43.18 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $14.37 | -67% |
| Expensive | 21x | $19.12 | -56% |
| Current | 49x | $43.18 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SW's PE is in its expensive range at 49x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for SW, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
SW has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 224% for LCID versus SW down 54%.
SW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.81 | +216% |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.93 | -147% |
| Q2 2024 | -$0.65 | -116% |
| Q1 2024 | $2.95 | -31% |
| Q4 2023 | $3.31 | -25% |
| Q3 2023 | $4.07 | -6.4% |
| Q2 2023 | $4.11 | -0.2% |
| Q1 2023 | $4.29 | +20% |
| Q4 2022 | $4.40 | +46% |
SW has returned to profit: it earned $0.89 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over SW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
SW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $8B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.7B | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.6B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $8B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.7B | +154% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.5B | +162% |
| Q3 2024 | $7.7B | +150% |
SW's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $8.2B last quarter, up 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9% | +0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3% | -3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.1% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.6% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 7.2% | -3.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3% | -1 points |
SW has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
SW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $360M | -31% |
| Q2 2026 | $300M | -2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | -$420M | -$178M |
| Q4 2025 | $612M | +189% |
| Q2 2025 | $307M | +$307M |
| Q1 2025 | -$242M | -$57.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $212M | -61% |
| Q2 2024 | $0 | -100% |
SW has the edge over LCID on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
SW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +2M shares |
| 3 years | +103% | +268M shares |
| 5 years | +105% | +270M shares |
| Available history | +121% | +289M shares |
SW has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | $30M |
| Q4 2023 | $1.1M |
| Q3 2023 | $382,597 |
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
SW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2023 | 1.7x | Healthy |
SW's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
SW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 36.9 | Neutral |
SW's weekly RSI is 48 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
SW PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | SW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 49x | 18x | 169% above |
| PE % | 92 | 47 | 45 pts above |
SW is trading at 49x earnings, a 169% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
SW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $45.1 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $43.0 | 0.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.0 | 1.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $42.3 | 2.2% above |
SW has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.
SW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $42.6 | $44.5 | +4.3% |
| 2021 | $44.5 | $43.0 | -3.3% |
| 2022 | $43.0 | $35.5 | -18% |
| 2023 | $35.5 | $41.5 | +17% |
| 2024 | $41.5 | $54.4 | +31% |
| 2025 | $54.4 | $38.7 | -29% |
| 2026 YTD | $38.7 | $43.2 | +11% |
SW has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.