KMX
CarMax, Inc.
KMX has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
NKE
NIKE, Inc.
NKE has the edge over KMX overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
KMX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
KMX's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
NKE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
NKE's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.
KMX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 14x | $30.47 | -42% |
| Forward | 16x | $52.58 | — |
| Fair | 22x | $46.67 | -11% |
| Current | 25x | $52.58 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $60.06 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KMX's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
NKE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 18x | $37.76 | — |
| Cheap | 23x | $47.70 | +26% |
| Forward | 30x | $37.76 | — |
| Fair | 33x | $68.16 | +80% |
| Expensive | 47x | $97.86 | +159% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NKE has the edge over KMX in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
KMX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KMX, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NKE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Decline | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NKE's profitability to improve, but its revenue to decline. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
KMX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.33 | +56% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.13 | -38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.61 | -56% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.68 | -48% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.03 | +3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.41 | +29% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.62 | +42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.21 | +6.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.94 | -6.7% |
KMX has the edge over NKE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.27 | -39% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.09 | +7.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.10 | -2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70 | -48% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.95 | -44% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | -42% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.01 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.24 | -5.3% |
NKE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.09 over the past year, against $3.82 in late 2021.
KMX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.9B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $8B | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.9B | -1% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.8B | -6.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.6B | -6% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $6B | +6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.2B | +1.2% |
KMX has the edge over NKE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.8% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.9% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 1.4% | -1.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.9% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.8% | +0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.7% | +0.9 points |
KMX's operating margin was 2.8% last quarter, up 0.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NKE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.2B | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $11B | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.3B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.4B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.7B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.1B | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.3B | -9.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.4B | -7.7% |
NKE's revenue fell from its 2023 peak and has held roughly level since: $11.2B last quarter, down 4.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.2% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +9.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.8% | -1.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7.9% | -3.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | -3.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | -2.9 points |
NKE has the edge over KMX on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
KMX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $805.8M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | -$85.7M | -153% |
| Q1 2026 | -$687.3M | -3764% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +$1.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $654M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $162.8M | +$384.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $18.8M | -91% |
| Q4 2024 | -$150.6M | -332% |
KMX has the edge over NKE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NKE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$64M | -527% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.5B | +313% |
| Q1 2026 | $284M | -83% |
| Q4 2025 | $386M | -58% |
| Q3 2025 | $15M | -95% |
| Q2 2025 | $363M | -85% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $920M | -65% |
NKE usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$64M, but it generated $2.1B over the past year.
KMX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +302K shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -7.2M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -16.8M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -23.2M shares |
| Available history | -14% | -24.1M shares |
KMX has the edge over NKE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $313,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $54.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $203.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $180.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $204M |
| Q1 2025 | $98.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $116.3M |
KMX spent $261M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 57% from the year before.
NKE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +5.2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.8% | -59.1M shares |
| 5 years | -8.4% | -135M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -110M shares |
NKE has 1.5B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $20M |
| Q3 2025 | $126M |
| Q2 2025 | $199M |
| Q1 2025 | $506M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
NKE has spent almost nothing on buybacks in the past year.
KMX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 25.6x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 24.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 18.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 17.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 17.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 18.9x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 20.3x | High |
KMX's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 18 years a year ago.
NKE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2024 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2023 | 0.1x | Very low |
NKE has the edge over KMX on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
KMX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
KMX's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
NKE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 40.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
NKE's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
KMX PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | KMX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 18x | 37% above |
| PE % | 67 | 47 | 20 pts above |
KMX is trading at 25x earnings, a 37% premium to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NKE PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | NKE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 18x | 0.3% above |
| PE % | 2 | 47 | 45 pts below |
NKE has the edge over KMX on valuation relative to its sector.
KMX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $53.7 | 2% below |
| 20 week MA | $56.5 | 7% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.6 | 8.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 6.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $65.4 | 20% below |
KMX's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 20% below its 200-week average.
NKE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $36.7 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.2 | 3.6% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.0 | 21% below |
| 100 week MA | $58.4 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $79.2 | 52% below |
NKE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 52% below its 200-week average.
KMX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.4 | $92.3 | +4.4% |
| 2021 | $92.3 | $126.3 | +37% |
| 2022 | $126.3 | $60.2 | -52% |
| 2023 | $60.2 | $76.7 | +28% |
| 2024 | $76.7 | $83.8 | +9.2% |
| 2025 | $83.8 | $39.3 | -53% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.3 | $52.6 | +34% |
KMX has the edge over NKE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NKE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $101.6 | $141.6 | +39% |
| 2021 | $141.6 | $165.7 | +17% |
| 2022 | $165.7 | $116.3 | -30% |
| 2023 | $116.3 | $108.6 | -6.6% |
| 2024 | $108.6 | $76.4 | -30% |
| 2025 | $76.4 | $60.9 | -20% |
| 2026 YTD | $60.9 | $37.8 | -38% |
NKE has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 38% so far in 2026.