KDP
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
KDP's fundamentals are mixed: revenue grew 43%, but its operating margin fell 1 points to 16%. At 33x earnings, it's trading above its usual 29x. Analysts expect earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
KDP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
KDP's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is weak.
KDP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 14x | $35.42 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $23.89 | -33% |
| Fair | 29x | $31.75 | -10% |
| Current | 33x | $35.42 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $37.51 | +5.9% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
KDP's PE is in its expensive range at 33x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
KDP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for KDP, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
KDP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.47 | +126% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.09 | -6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.99 | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.35 | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.53 | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | -30% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.12 | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.10 | -29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.05 | -32% |
KDP's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.09 over the past year, against $1.68 in early 2022.
KDP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.3B | +71% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.3B | +76% |
| Q1 2026 | $4B | +9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.5B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.3B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.6B | +4.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.1B | +5.2% |
KDP's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $7.3B last quarter, up 71% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 18% | -5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.6% | -13 points |
| Q1 2026 | 19% | -3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +18 points |
| Q3 2025 | 23% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6% | -23 points |
KDP's operating margin was 18% last quarter, down 5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
KDP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $884M | +68% |
| Q2 2026 | $714M | +120% |
| Q1 2026 | $165M | +85% |
| Q4 2025 | $564M | -18% |
| Q3 2025 | $527M | +4.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $325M | -40% |
| Q1 2025 | $89M | +$162M |
| Q4 2024 | $684M | +378% |
KDP generated $2.3B in free cash flow over the past year, up 43% from the year before.
KDP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1.6M shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +3.2M shares |
| 3 years | -2.9% | -40.1M shares |
| 5 years | -4.4% | -62.4M shares |
| Available history | -3.7% | -53M shares |
KDP has 1.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $9M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $5M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
KDP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 6.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.8x | High |
KDP's net debt is about 6.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 4.6 years a year ago.
KDP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.3 | Overbought |
KDP's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
KDP PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | KDP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 19x | 67% above |
| PE % | 72 | 18 | 54 pts above |
KDP is trading at 33x earnings, a 67% premium to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.
KDP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.9 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $32.4 | 9.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $30.2 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $32.0 | 11% above |
KDP has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 11% above its 200-week average.
KDP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $28.8 | $31.9 | +11% |
| 2021 | $31.9 | $35.9 | +13% |
| 2022 | $35.9 | $36.4 | +1.2% |
| 2023 | $36.4 | $33.3 | -8.4% |
| 2024 | $33.3 | $32.3 | -3.2% |
| 2025 | $32.3 | $28.1 | -13% |
| 2026 YTD | $28.1 | $35.4 | +26% |
KDP has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 26% so far in 2026.