JRVR
James River Group Holdings, Ltd.
JRVR offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over JRVR overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
JRVR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JRVR's revenue and profitability are currently under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JRVR.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
JRVR PE Valuation
JRVR has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
JRVR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect JRVR's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over JRVR on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
JRVR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.91 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$3.62 | -$1.38 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.44 | +$3.76 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.40 | +$3.65 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.79 | +$3.85 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.24 | +$1.81 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.32 | -$0.82 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.25 | -$0.97 |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.06 | -$0.61 |
JRVR is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $3.62 per share over the past year, against $4.94 at its worst in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over JRVR on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
JRVR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $147.7M | -14% |
| Q2 2026 | $161.3M | -7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.4M | -12% |
| Q4 2025 | $167.7M | +32% |
| Q3 2025 | $172.7M | -9.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $174.8M | -7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $172.3M | -14% |
| Q4 2024 | $126.7M | -42% |
JRVR's revenue fell from its 2019 peak and has held roughly level since: $148M last quarter, down 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -128% | -129 points |
| Q2 2026 | 5.2% | +1 points |
| Q1 2026 | -7% | -16 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +72 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5% | +29 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.2% | -6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3% | -7.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -57% | -70 points |
JRVR's operating margin was −128% last quarter, down 129 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over JRVR on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over JRVR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
JRVR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$39.8M | -218% |
| Q2 2026 | -$5.9M | -124% |
| Q1 2026 | -$766K | +$51.9M |
| Q4 2025 | -$29.3M | -718% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.7M | +$304.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $24.7M | +$34M |
| Q1 2025 | -$52.7M | -326% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.7M | +$17.7M |
JRVR's free cash flow was −$76M over the past year, against $10M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JRVR.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
JRVR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.3% | -623K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -387K shares |
| 3 years | +22% | +8.5M shares |
| 5 years | +34% | +11.8M shares |
| Available history | +51% | +15.7M shares |
JRVR has 46M diluted shares, down 0.8% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | $1.5M |
| Q4 2022 | $363,000 |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $19,000 |
| Q1 2022 | $922,000 |
| Q4 2021 | $315,000 |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | $209,000 |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over JRVR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
JRVR Net Leverage
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
JRVR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.1 | Neutral |
JRVR's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
JRVR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JRVR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.8x | 13x | 32% below |
| PE % | 22 | 63 | 41 pts below |
JRVR has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
JRVR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.67 | 14% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.05 | 22% below |
| 50 week MA | $5.12 | 39% below |
| 100 week MA | $5.13 | 39% below |
| 200 week MA | $8.78 | 64% below |
JRVR is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 64% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over JRVR on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JRVR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $41.5 | $48.9 | +18% |
| 2021 | $48.9 | $27.1 | -44% |
| 2022 | $27.1 | $22.1 | -19% |
| 2023 | $22.1 | $9.24 | -58% |
| 2024 | $9.24 | $4.84 | -48% |
| 2025 | $4.84 | $6.39 | +32% |
| 2026 YTD | $6.39 | $3.14 | -51% |
JRVR has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 51% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over JRVR on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.