JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has the edge over NCDL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
NCDL trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
NCDL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
NCDL's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like NCDL.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM has the edge over NCDL in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
NCDL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.9x | $6.95 | -41% |
| Fair | 7.5x | $7.58 | -35% |
| Forward | 7.6x | $11.75 | — |
| Expensive | 9x | $9.13 | -22% |
| Current | 12x | $11.75 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NCDL's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.6x, in its fair range.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
NCDL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect NCDL's profitability to weaken, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM has the edge over NCDL on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NCDL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.56 | +54% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.01 | -49% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12 | -47% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.51 | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.86 | -18% |
| Q3 2023 | $2.07 | +111% |
| Q2 2023 | $1.69 | +26% |
| Q1 2023 | $0.97 | -51% |
| Q4 2022 | $0.70 | -66% |
NCDL's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.01 over the past year, against $2.26 in late 2024.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
NCDL has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 8.1% for JPM versus up 54% for NCDL.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM's operating margin was 40% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
NCDL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | $20.1M | +54% |
| Q3 2022 | $14.2M | +38% |
| Q2 2022 | $16.5M | +120% |
| Q1 2022 | $14.2M | +125% |
| Q4 2021 | $13M | +162% |
| Q3 2021 | $10.3M | +232% |
| Q2 2021 | $7.5M | +175% |
| Q1 2021 | $6.3M | +116% |
NCDL's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $20M last quarter, up 54% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 36% | -57 points |
| Q3 2022 | 42% | -66 points |
| Q2 2022 | 9.2% | -94 points |
| Q1 2022 | 69% | -27 points |
| Q4 2021 | 93% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2021 | 108% | -68 points |
| Q2 2021 | 104% | +161 points |
| Q1 2021 | 96% | +167 points |
NCDL's operating margin was 36% last quarter, down 57 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
NCDL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $63.6M | +71% |
| Q2 2026 | $61M | -56% |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.7M | -$4.9M |
| Q4 2025 | $28.6M | +138% |
| Q3 2025 | $37.3M | +$79.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $137.1M | +$306.5M |
| Q1 2025 | -$8.8M | +$88.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $12M | +$146.7M |
NCDL has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has the edge over NCDL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
NCDL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -16.6K shares |
| 3 years | +122% | +27.2M shares |
| 5 years | +1148% | +45.4M shares |
NCDL has 49M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $2.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $26M |
| Q1 2025 | $37.1M |
| Q4 2024 | $22.5M |
NCDL hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
NCDL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | 26.9x | High |
| Q3 2022 | 21.1x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 15.9x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 10.2x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 10.0x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 11.5x | High |
| Q2 2021 | 10.8x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 12.8x | High |
NCDL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 10 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like NCDL.
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
NCDL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 47.6 | Neutral |
NCDL's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 48 (neutral).
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM is trading at 14x earnings, a 10% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
NCDL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | NCDL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 11% below |
| PE % | 99 | 36 | 63 pts above |
NCDL has the edge over JPM on valuation relative to its sector.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM has stronger trend alignment. JPM is above 4 of 5 weekly averages versus NCDL above 1 of 4.
NCDL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.2 | 5.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $11.9 | 1.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $12.9 | 8.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.4 | 19% below |
NCDL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 19% below its 100-week average.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has the edge over NCDL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NCDL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $17.9 | $17.1 | -4.4% |
| 2025 | $17.1 | $13.8 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.8 | $11.8 | -15% |
NCDL has finished every year since 2024 lower, and it's down 15% so far in 2026.