JEF
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.
JEF offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over JEF overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
JEF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JEF's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JEF.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
JEF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.5x | $26.66 | -42% |
| Current | 11x | $46.27 | — |
| Forward | 11x | $46.27 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $53.80 | +16% |
| Expensive | 26x | $105 | +126% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JEF's PE is in its fair range at 11.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11.0x next year's earnings.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over JEF in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JEF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect JEF's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over JEF on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
JEF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.21 | +3.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.07 | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.82 | +44% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.96 | +2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.83 | -5.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.92 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.66 | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.90 | +138% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.99 | +172% |
JEF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.07 over the past year, against $5.86 in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over JEF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
JEF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2B | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.6B | -8.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $2B | +63% |
JEF's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $2.2B last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 16% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | +6.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | -3.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.3% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.5% | -3.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +8.3 points |
JEF's operating margin was 16% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over JEF on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over JEF on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
JEF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.5B | +1917% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +$2.6B |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.8B | +$912.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $126M | +$831.9M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -3629% |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.7B | -$1.4B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.6B | +4531% |
JEF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
JEF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +13% | +26.3M shares |
| 1 year | +3.1% | +6.9M shares |
| 3 years | -1% | -2.4M shares |
| 5 years | -19% | -54.2M shares |
| Available history | -31% | -101M shares |
JEF has 230M diluted shares, up 3.1% from a year ago, despite $440M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $68.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $197.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $174.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $29,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $918,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $56.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1,000 |
JEF spent $440M buying back its own shares over the past year, about eight times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over JEF on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
JEF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 6.3x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.3x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 1.5x | Healthy |
JEF has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
JEF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.1 | Neutral |
JEF's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
JEF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JEF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 13% below |
| PE % | 43 | 63 | 20 pts below |
JEF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
JEF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $45.9 | 0.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $50.5 | 8.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $52.1 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $55.7 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $49.8 | 7.1% below |
JEF has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 7.1% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over JEF on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JEF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.2 | $22.6 | +12% |
| 2021 | $22.6 | $36.9 | +63% |
| 2022 | $36.9 | $33.4 | -9.6% |
| 2023 | $33.4 | $40.4 | +21% |
| 2024 | $40.4 | $78.9 | +95% |
| 2025 | $78.9 | $63.9 | -19% |
| 2026 YTD | $63.9 | $46.3 | -28% |
JEF has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 28% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over JEF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.