IREN

IREN Limited

There isn't enough reported data to score IREN yet.

MSDL

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund

33
Fundamentals47/ 100
Valuation9/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential12/ 100

MSDL's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks expensive: trading at 277x earnings, about 31 times its usual 9.0x. Analysts expect earnings to hold roughly steady.

IREN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Weak
N/A
N/A

IREN's revenue and profitability are currently under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like IREN.

MSDL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
N/A
N/A

MSDL's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MSDL.

IREN PE Valuation

IREN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MSDL PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE72x144x216x288x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE72x144x216x288x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward7.5x$13.83—
Cheap7.6x$0.38-97%
Fair9x$0.45-97%
Expensive15x$0.76-94%
Current277x$13.83—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MSDL's PE is in its expensive range at 277x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 7.5x, in its cheap range.

IREN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses growing
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect IREN's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

MSDL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Stable
Stable
Improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect MSDL's profitability to improve, with its earnings and revenue holding steady.

IREN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknown—
DownsideUnknown—

Calculated from the latest close: $19.48 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare IREN and MSDL's risk to reward.

MSDL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+14%$15.75
Downside-12%$12.15

Calculated from the latest close: $13.83 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare IREN and MSDL's risk to reward.

IREN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.29Q1 2024: $-0.16Q2 2024: $-0.20Q3 2024: $-0.39Q4 2024: $-0.44Q1 2025: $-0.59Q2 2025: $0.25Q3 2025: $1.60Q4 2025: $1.18Q1 2026: $0.51Q2 2026: $-2.22Q3 2026: $-3.96
Q4 2023: $-0.29Q1 2024: $-0.16Q2 2024: $-0.20Q3 2024: $-0.39Q4 2024: $-0.44Q1 2025: $-0.59Q2 2025: $0.25Q3 2025: $1.60Q4 2025: $1.18Q1 2026: $0.51Q2 2026: $-2.22Q3 2026: $-3.96
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$3.96-347%
Q2 2026-$2.22-988%
Q1 2026$0.51+$1.10
Q4 2025$1.18+$1.62
Q3 2025$1.60+$1.99
Q2 2025$0.25+$0.45
Q1 2025-$0.59-$0.43
Q4 2024-$0.44-$0.15

IREN has swung to a loss: it lost $3.96 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

MSDL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $3.11Q1 2024: $3.08Q2 2024: $2.95Q3 2024: $2.53Q4 2024: $2.43Q1 2025: $2.18Q2 2025: $1.93Q3 2025: $1.65Q4 2025: $1.40Q1 2026: $1.01Q2 2026: $0.69Q3 2026: $0.05Forward: $1.85
Q4 2023: $3.11Q1 2024: $3.08Q2 2024: $2.95Q3 2024: $2.53Q4 2024: $2.43Q1 2025: $2.18Q2 2025: $1.93Q3 2025: $1.65Q4 2025: $1.40Q1 2026: $1.01Q2 2026: $0.69Q3 2026: $0.05Forward: $1.85
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.85+3610%
Q3 2026$0.05-97%
Q2 2026$0.69-64%
Q1 2026$1.01-54%
Q4 2025$1.40-42%
Q3 2025$1.65-35%
Q2 2025$1.93-35%
Q1 2025$2.18-29%
Q4 2024$2.43-22%

MSDL has the edge over IREN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

IREN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $42MQ1 2024: $54MQ2 2024: $57MQ3 2024: $53MQ4 2024: $116MQ1 2025: $145MQ2 2025: $187MQ3 2025: $240MQ4 2025: $185MQ1 2026: $145MQ2 2026: $137MQ3 2026: $228M
Q4 2023: $42MQ1 2024: $54MQ2 2024: $57MQ3 2024: $53MQ4 2024: $116MQ1 2025: $145MQ2 2025: $187MQ3 2025: $240MQ4 2025: $185MQ1 2026: $145MQ2 2026: $137MQ3 2026: $228M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$228M-5.1%
Q2 2026$137.2M-27%
Q1 2026$144.8M0%
Q4 2025$184.7M+59%
Q3 2025$240.3M+355%
Q2 2025$187.3M+230%
Q1 2025$144.8M+168%
Q4 2024$116.1M+176%

MSDL has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 5.1% for IREN versus up 26% for MSDL.

MSDL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
Q4 2023: --Q1 2024: --Q2 2024: --Q3 2024: --Q4 2024: --Q1 2025: --Q2 2025: --Q3 2025: --Q4 2025: --Q1 2026: --Q2 2026: --Q3 2026: --
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q4 2022$40.2M+26%
Q3 2022$24.3M-8.5%
Q2 2022$6.6M-72%
Q1 2022$29.1M+72%
Q4 2021$31.9M+179%
Q3 2021$26.6M+312%
Q2 2021$23.3M+343%
Q1 2021$16.9M+1731%

MSDL's revenue has held roughly level: $40M last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.

IREN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$29MQ1 2024: −$222MQ2 2024: −$163MQ3 2024: −$387MQ4 2024: −$134MQ1 2025: −$351MQ2 2025: $16MQ3 2025: −$38MQ4 2025: −$468MQ1 2026: −$874MQ2 2026: $482MQ3 2026: −$1.6B
Q4 2023: −$29MQ1 2024: −$222MQ2 2024: −$163MQ3 2024: −$387MQ4 2024: −$134MQ1 2025: −$351MQ2 2025: $16MQ3 2025: −$38MQ4 2025: −$468MQ1 2026: −$874MQ2 2026: $482MQ3 2026: −$1.6B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$1.6B-$1.6B
Q2 2026$482.2M+2895%
Q1 2026-$873.8M-$523.1M
Q4 2025-$468M-$334M
Q3 2025-$38M+$349.4M
Q2 2025$16.1M+$179M
Q1 2025-$350.7M-$128.7M
Q4 2024-$134M-$105.2M

IREN's free cash flow was −$2.5B over the past year, against −$507M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like IREN.

MSDL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $23MQ1 2024: −$54MQ2 2024: −$107MQ3 2024: −$117MQ4 2024: −$96MQ1 2025: $34MQ2 2025: $24MQ3 2025: $39MQ4 2025: $54MQ1 2026: $86MQ2 2026: $104MQ3 2026: $129M
Q4 2023: $23MQ1 2024: −$54MQ2 2024: −$107MQ3 2024: −$117MQ4 2024: −$96MQ1 2025: $34MQ2 2025: $24MQ3 2025: $39MQ4 2025: $54MQ1 2026: $86MQ2 2026: $104MQ3 2026: $129M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$128.7M+230%
Q2 2026$103.8M+332%
Q1 2026$86.3M+153%
Q4 2025$53.8M+$149.9M
Q3 2025$39M+$156M
Q2 2025$24M+$130.7M
Q1 2025$34.1M+$87.8M
Q4 2024-$96.2M-519%

MSDL has the edge over IREN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

IREN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 73MQ1 2024: 112MQ2 2024: 186MQ3 2024: 189MQ4 2024: 210MQ1 2025: 219MQ2 2025: 257MQ3 2025: 362MQ4 2025: 298MQ1 2026: 334MQ2 2026: 316MQ3 2026: 399M
Q4 2023: 73MQ1 2024: 112MQ2 2024: 186MQ3 2024: 189MQ4 2024: 210MQ1 2025: 219MQ2 2025: 257MQ3 2025: 362MQ4 2025: 298MQ1 2026: 334MQ2 2026: 316MQ3 2026: 399M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+26%+82.4M shares
1 year+10%+36.9M shares
3 years+511%+333M shares
5 years+624%+344M shares
Available history+2346%+382M shares

IREN has 399M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.

MSDL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 87MQ2 2024: 89MQ3 2024: 89MQ4 2024: 89MQ1 2025: 88MQ2 2025: 87MQ3 2025: 87MQ4 2025: 87MQ1 2026: 86MQ2 2026: 85MQ3 2026: 84M
Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 87MQ2 2024: 89MQ3 2024: 89MQ4 2024: 89MQ1 2025: 88MQ2 2025: 87MQ3 2025: 87MQ4 2025: 87MQ1 2026: 86MQ2 2026: 85MQ3 2026: 84M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.9%-724K shares
1 year-3.2%-2.8M shares
3 years+17%+12.2M shares
5 years-4.8%-4.2M shares
Available history+2618%+80.9M shares

MSDL has the edge over IREN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

IREN Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -11.0xQ1 2024: -10.6xQ2 2024: -15.9xQ3 2024: -16.7xQ4 2024: -4.6xQ1 2025: 3.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 4.1xQ4 2025: 22.2xQ1 2026: 157.6x
Q4 2023: -11.0xQ1 2024: -10.6xQ2 2024: -15.9xQ3 2024: -16.7xQ4 2024: -4.6xQ1 2025: 3.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 4.1xQ4 2025: 22.2xQ1 2026: 157.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q1 2026157.6xHigh
Q4 202522.2xHigh
Q3 20254.1xHigh
Q2 20252.0xModerate
Q1 20253.3xElevated
Q4 2024-4.6xNet Cash
Q3 2024-16.7xNet Cash
Q2 2024-15.9xNet Cash

IREN's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.3 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like IREN.

MSDL Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q4 202229.5xHigh
Q3 202226.4xHigh
Q2 202220.6xHigh
Q1 202214.5xHigh
Q4 202114.1xHigh
Q3 202114.6xHigh
Q2 202112.8xHigh
Q1 202113.2xHigh

MSDL's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 14 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MSDL.

IREN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI33.3Neutral
Stochastic8.2Oversold

IREN's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 8 (oversold).

MSDL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.1Neutral
Stochastic35.8Neutral

MSDL's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 36 (neutral).

IREN PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricIRENSector medianRelative
PEN/A13x—

IREN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MSDL PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSDLSector medianRelative
PE277x13x2,024% above
PE %1003664 pts above

MSDL is trading at 277x earnings, a 2024% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

IREN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$29.835% below
20 week MA$36.246% below
50 week MA$42.854% below
100 week MA$32.039% below
200 week MA$19.12.1% above

MSDL has stronger trend alignment. IREN is above 1 of 5 weekly averages versus MSDL above 1 of 4.

MSDL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$13.61.7% above
20 week MA$14.64.9% below
50 week MA$15.28.8% below
100 week MA$17.119% below

MSDL has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 19% below its 100-week average.

IREN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$24.8$17.2-31%
2022$17.2$1.19-93%
2023$1.19$7.15+501%
2024$7.15$10.7+50%
2025$10.7$40.3+276%
2026 YTD$40.3$19.5-52%

IREN's yearly returns have swung widely, from +501% in 2023 to −93% in 2022. It's down 52% so far in 2026.

MSDL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2024$20.5$21.4+4.4%
2025$21.4$17.0-21%
2026 YTD$17.0$13.8-19%

MSDL has the edge over IREN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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