IP
International Paper Company
IP has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN has the edge over IP overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
IP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
IP's cash flow is currently stable, but its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
RIVN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IP PE Valuation
IP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RIVN PE Valuation
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
RIVN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect RIVN's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.18 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$6.56 | -$3.95 |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.52 | -$6.42 |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.36 | -644% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.71 | -527% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.61 | -323% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.10 | -108% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.17 | +139% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.57 | +91% |
IP lost $6.56 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
RIVN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$2.25 | +$0.83 |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.58 | +$0.62 |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.92 | +$0.77 |
| Q4 2025 | -$3.07 | +$1.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.08 | +$2.52 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.20 | +$2.76 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.69 | +$2.08 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.69 | +$1.05 |
RIVN has the edge over IP on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.2B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $6B | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $6B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6B | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.2B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.8B | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.9B | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6B | -0.5% |
IP's revenue has held roughly level: $6.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -19% | -8.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -44% | -39 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7% | -5.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.3% | -6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.9% | +2.2 points |
IP has the edge over RIVN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
RIVN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.2B | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | -26% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.6B | +78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +3% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B | +32% |
RIVN has the edge over IP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -41% | +22 points |
| Q2 2026 | -50% | +35 points |
| Q1 2026 | -64% | -11 points |
| Q4 2025 | -65% | -27 points |
| Q3 2025 | -63% | +71 points |
| Q2 2025 | -86% | +33 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +70 points |
| Q4 2024 | -38% | +82 points |
RIVN's operating margin was −41% last quarter, up 22 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
IP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$267M | -278% |
| Q2 2026 | -$7M | -113% |
| Q1 2026 | $94M | +$712M |
| Q4 2025 | $255M | +86% |
| Q3 2025 | $150M | -51% |
| Q2 2025 | $54M | -68% |
| Q1 2025 | -$618M | -529% |
| Q4 2024 | $137M | -27% |
IP has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
RIVN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.1B | -$703M |
| Q2 2026 | -$849M | -$451M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -$549M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -234% |
| Q3 2025 | -$421M | +$732M |
| Q2 2025 | -$398M | +$639M |
| Q1 2025 | -$526M | +$997M |
| Q4 2024 | $856M | +$2.3B |
RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.
IP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +1.6M shares |
| 3 years | +53% | +183M shares |
| 5 years | +26% | +111M shares |
| Available history | +26% | +108M shares |
IP has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1M |
| Q1 2025 | $62M |
| Q4 2024 | $1M |
IP spent $32M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 51% from the year before.
RIVN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +9.1% | +121M shares |
| 1 year | +19% | +226M shares |
| 3 years | +52% | +494M shares |
RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $6M |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
IP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 2.1x | Moderate |
IP's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
RIVN Net Leverage
RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
IP's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
RIVN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.6 | Neutral |
RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
IP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | IP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
IP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.9 | 0.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $36.9 | 8% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.6 | 9.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.3 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $41.3 | 18% below |
IP has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
RIVN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $13.3 | 3.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.9 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.7 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $15.1 | 15% below |
RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.
IP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.5 | $47.1 | +8.4% |
| 2021 | $47.1 | $45.8 | -2.7% |
| 2022 | $45.8 | $34.7 | -24% |
| 2023 | $34.7 | $36.2 | +4.1% |
| 2024 | $36.2 | $54.5 | +51% |
| 2025 | $54.5 | $39.9 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.9 | $33.9 | -15% |
IP has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
RIVN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $130.0 | $96.8 | -25% |
| 2022 | $96.8 | $19.1 | -80% |
| 2023 | $19.1 | $23.5 | +23% |
| 2024 | $23.5 | $13.7 | -42% |
| 2025 | $13.7 | $20.9 | +53% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.9 | $12.8 | -39% |
RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.