IP
International Paper Company
IP has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
LCID has the edge over IP overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
IP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
IP's cash flow is currently stable, but its revenue, profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
LCID Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
LCID's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IP PE Valuation
IP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LCID PE Valuation
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for IP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LCID Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Strong growth | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect LCID's losses to shrink, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
IP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.18 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$6.56 | -$3.95 |
| Q2 2026 | -$6.52 | -$6.42 |
| Q1 2026 | -$6.36 | -644% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6.71 | -527% |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.61 | -323% |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.10 | -108% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.17 | +139% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.57 | +91% |
IP lost $6.56 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
LCID Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$13.08 | -$2.57 |
| Q2 2026 | -$13.65 | -$2.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$13.15 | -$1.25 |
| Q4 2025 | -$12.09 | +$0.41 |
| Q3 2025 | -$10.51 | +$2.49 |
| Q2 2025 | -$11.30 | +$0.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$11.90 | +$0.40 |
| Q4 2024 | -$12.50 | +$1.10 |
LCID has the edge over IP on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.2B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $6B | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | $6B | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $6B | +31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.2B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.8B | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.9B | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.6B | -0.5% |
IP's revenue has held roughly level: $6.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -19% | -8.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.4% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6% | +3.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -44% | -39 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.7% | -5.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.3% | -6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.9% | +2.2 points |
IP has the edge over LCID on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
LCID Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $350.3M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $405.3M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | $282.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $522.7M | +123% |
| Q3 2025 | $336.6M | +68% |
| Q2 2025 | $259.4M | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $235M | +36% |
| Q4 2024 | $234.5M | +49% |
LCID has the edge over IP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -245% | +35 points |
| Q2 2026 | -267% | +43 points |
| Q1 2026 | -350% | -56 points |
| Q4 2025 | -204% | +109 points |
| Q3 2025 | -280% | +105 points |
| Q2 2025 | -310% | +83 points |
| Q1 2025 | -294% | +128 points |
| Q4 2024 | -313% | +156 points |
LCID's operating margin was −245% last quarter, up 35 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2020.
IP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$267M | -278% |
| Q2 2026 | -$7M | -113% |
| Q1 2026 | $94M | +$712M |
| Q4 2025 | $255M | +86% |
| Q3 2025 | $150M | -51% |
| Q2 2025 | $54M | -68% |
| Q1 2025 | -$618M | -529% |
| Q4 2024 | $137M | -27% |
IP has the edge over LCID on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
LCID Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1B | -$84.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.5B | -$463.2M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.4B | -$849M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$417.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$955.5M | -$333M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -$271.6M |
| Q1 2025 | -$589.9M | +$125.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$824.8M | -$77.6M |
LCID has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$5.2B over the past year, against −$3.4B the year before.
IP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +100K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +1.6M shares |
| 3 years | +53% | +183M shares |
| 5 years | +26% | +111M shares |
| Available history | +26% | +108M shares |
IP has the edge over LCID on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1M |
| Q1 2026 | $30M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $1M |
| Q2 2025 | $1M |
| Q1 2025 | $62M |
| Q4 2024 | $1M |
IP spent $32M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 51% from the year before.
LCID Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.3% | +12.5M shares |
| 1 year | +26% | +82.4M shares |
| 3 years | +73% | +166M shares |
LCID has 395M diluted shares, up 26% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | $2.2M |
| Q1 2020 | — |
IP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2024 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2023 | 2.1x | Moderate |
IP's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
LCID Net Leverage
LCID's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.0 | Neutral |
IP's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
LCID Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.1 | Oversold |
LCID's weekly RSI is 33 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
IP PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | IP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
IP has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
LCID PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
LCID has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $33.9 | 0.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $36.9 | 8% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.6 | 9.8% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.3 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $41.3 | 18% below |
IP has the edge over LCID on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LCID Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.53 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.88 | 33% below |
| 50 week MA | $7.33 | 56% below |
| 100 week MA | $15.4 | 79% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.9 | 90% below |
LCID is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 90% below its 200-week average.
IP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.5 | $47.1 | +8.4% |
| 2021 | $47.1 | $45.8 | -2.7% |
| 2022 | $45.8 | $34.7 | -24% |
| 2023 | $34.7 | $36.2 | +4.1% |
| 2024 | $36.2 | $54.5 | +51% |
| 2025 | $54.5 | $39.9 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $39.9 | $33.9 | -15% |
IP has the edge over LCID on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LCID Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.9 | $100.4 | +1.5% |
| 2021 | $100.4 | $376.4 | +275% |
| 2022 | $376.4 | $67.0 | -82% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $42.1 | -37% |
| 2024 | $42.1 | $32.0 | -24% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $11.4 | -64% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.4 | $3.25 | -72% |
LCID has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 72% so far in 2026.