IOT
Samsara Inc.
IOT offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT has a slight edge over IOT overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
IOT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
IOT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
MSFT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
IOT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 46x | $41.32 | — |
| Cheap | 250x | $40.07 | -3% |
| Current | 258x | $41.32 | — |
| Fair | 314x | $50.16 | +21% |
| Expensive | 385x | $61.52 | +49% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IOT has the edge over MSFT in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MSFT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 25x | $523 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $525 | +0.4% |
| Current | 27x | $523 | — |
| Fair | 34x | $652 | +25% |
| Expensive | 37x | $711 | +36% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.
IOT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
IOT has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
MSFT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.
IOT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.90 | +460% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.16 | +$0.32 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.10 | +$0.32 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.02 | +$0.26 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.08 | +$0.40 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.16 | +$0.33 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.22 | +$0.29 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.28 | +$0.26 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.48 | -$0.06 |
IOT has returned to profit: it earned $0.16 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
MSFT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $20.79 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $19.15 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.95 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.80 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.99 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.06 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.64 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.93 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.41 | +12% |
MSFT has the edge over IOT on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
IOT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $508.4M | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $478.8M | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $444.3M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | $416M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $391.5M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $366.9M | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $346.3M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $322M | +36% |
IOT has the edge over MSFT on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1% | +7.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5% | +11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 2% | +7.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4% | +14 points |
| Q3 2025 | -6.8% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | -9.1% | +15 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5.3% | +39 points |
| Q4 2024 | -15% | +8.3 points |
IOT's operating margin was 1% last quarter, up 7.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MSFT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $92.3B | +19% |
| Q2 2026 | $90B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $82.9B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $81.3B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $77.7B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $76.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.1B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $69.6B | +12% |
MSFT's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $92.3B last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 50% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 45% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 46% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 49% | +2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 45% | +1.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 46% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +1.9 points |
MSFT has the edge over IOT on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
IOT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $64.7M | +46% |
| Q2 2026 | $73.2M | +60% |
| Q1 2026 | $61.7M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $55.8M | +79% |
| Q3 2025 | $44.2M | +237% |
| Q2 2025 | $45.7M | +146% |
| Q1 2025 | $48.5M | +$92.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $31.2M | +266% |
IOT has the edge over MSFT on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
MSFT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.6B | -27% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.6B | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.9B | -9.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.7B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.6B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.3B | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.5B | -29% |
MSFT's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $60B over the past year, down 23% from the year before.
IOT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +2.8M shares |
| 1 year | +3.3% | +18.7M shares |
| 3 years | +11% | +58.7M shares |
| 5 years | +17% | +87.5M shares |
IOT has 590M diluted shares, up 3.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | $4,000 |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | $1,000 |
MSFT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -7M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -20M shares |
| 3 years | -0.2% | -16M shares |
| 5 years | -1.6% | -121M shares |
| Available history | -3.2% | -245M shares |
MSFT has the edge over IOT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7B |
| Q2 2025 | $4.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $4.8B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
MSFT spent $21B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 5.2% from the year before.
IOT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -14.9x | Net Cash |
IOT has the edge over MSFT on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MSFT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
IOT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 59.4 | Neutral |
IOT's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 59 (neutral).
MSFT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.0 | Neutral |
MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
IOT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IOT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 258x | 28x | 827% above |
| PE % | 30 | 47 | 17 pts below |
IOT is trading at 258x earnings, a 827% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
MSFT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | MSFT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
MSFT has the edge over IOT on valuation relative to its sector.
IOT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $41.2 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $39.5 | 4.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $35.2 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $38.2 | 8.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $34.9 | 18% above |
IOT has the edge over MSFT on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MSFT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $524.7 | 0.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $484.8 | 7.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $446.9 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $453.8 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $411.5 | 27% above |
MSFT's trend is up, with a small recent dip: it's below only its 8-week average, and 27% above its 200-week average.
IOT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $22.3 | $27.6 | +24% |
| 2022 | $27.6 | $12.3 | -56% |
| 2023 | $12.3 | $33.4 | +172% |
| 2024 | $33.4 | $44.4 | +33% |
| 2025 | $44.4 | $36.5 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.5 | $41.3 | +13% |
IOT has the edge over MSFT on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MSFT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $159.0 | $222.8 | +40% |
| 2021 | $222.8 | $334.7 | +50% |
| 2022 | $334.7 | $238.7 | -29% |
| 2023 | $238.7 | $376.0 | +58% |
| 2024 | $376.0 | $430.5 | +14% |
| 2025 | $430.5 | $487.7 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $487.7 | $523.0 | +7.2% |
MSFT has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 7.2% so far in 2026.