INV

Innventure, Inc.

There isn't enough reported data to score INV yet.

MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS's fundamentals are strong: revenue grew 16% and earnings per share grew 29%. At 15x earnings, it's trading in line with its usual 14x. Analysts expect earnings growth.

INV Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Weak
N/A
N/A

INV's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like INV.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

INV PE Valuation

INV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189—
Current15x$189—
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

INV Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses steady
Strong growth
--
Limited
Low

Analysts expect INV's revenue to grow, with its earnings and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.

INV Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
UpsideUnknown—
DownsideUnknown—

Calculated from the latest close: $0.16 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare INV and MS's risk to reward.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

There is not enough scenario data to compare INV and MS's risk to reward.

INV Earnings Per Share

Q2 2024: $-1.03Q3 2024: $-1.53Q4 2024: $-2.64Q1 2025: $-5.62Q2 2025: $-7.05Q3 2025: $-6.62
Q2 2024: $-1.03Q3 2024: $-1.53Q4 2024: $-2.64Q1 2025: $-5.62Q2 2025: $-7.05Q3 2025: $-6.62
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2025-$6.62-$5.09
Q2 2025-$7.05-$6.02

INV lost $6.62 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over INV in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.

INV Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $224,000Q1 2024: $224,000Q2 2024: $223,000Q3 2024: $317,000Q4 2024: $456,000Q1 2025: $224,000Q2 2025: $476,000Q3 2025: $534,000Q4 2025: $822,000Q1 2026: $1MQ2 2026: $953,000Q3 2026: $1M
Q4 2023: $224,000Q1 2024: $224,000Q2 2024: $223,000Q3 2024: $317,000Q4 2024: $456,000Q1 2025: $224,000Q2 2025: $476,000Q3 2025: $534,000Q4 2025: $822,000Q1 2026: $1MQ2 2026: $953,000Q3 2026: $1M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.5M+177%
Q2 2026$953K+100%
Q1 2026$1.4M+544%
Q4 2025$822K+80%
Q3 2025$534K+68%
Q2 2025$476K+113%
Q1 2025$224K0%
Q4 2024$456K+104%

INV's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $1M last quarter, up 177% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

INV Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$8MQ1 2024: −$8MQ2 2024: −$9MQ3 2024: --Q4 2024: −$29MQ1 2025: −$16MQ2 2025: −$22MQ3 2025: −$20MQ4 2025: −$24MQ1 2026: −$35MQ2 2026: −$26MQ3 2026: −$18M
Q4 2023: −$8MQ1 2024: −$8MQ2 2024: −$9MQ3 2024: --Q4 2024: −$29MQ1 2025: −$16MQ2 2025: −$22MQ3 2025: −$20MQ4 2025: −$24MQ1 2026: −$35MQ2 2026: −$26MQ3 2026: −$18M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$18.3M+$1.7M
Q2 2026-$25.7M-$3.6M
Q1 2026-$34.9M-$19.3M
Q4 2025-$24.4M+$5.1M
Q2 2025-$22.1M-$13M
Q1 2025-$15.6M-$7.6M
Q4 2024-$29.5M-$21.7M

INV has the edge over MS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

INV Total Shares

Q4 2023: 43MQ1 2024: 43MQ2 2024: 44MQ3 2024: 11MQ4 2024: 44MQ1 2025: 46MQ2 2025: 53MQ3 2025: 56MQ1 2026: 78MQ2 2026: 83MQ3 2026: 85M
Q4 2023: 43MQ1 2024: 43MQ2 2024: 44MQ3 2024: 11MQ4 2024: 44MQ1 2025: 46MQ2 2025: 53MQ3 2025: 56MQ1 2026: 78MQ2 2026: 83MQ3 2026: 85M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.9%+1.6M shares
1 year+61%+32.2M shares

INV has 85M diluted shares, up 61% from a year ago.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over INV on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

INV Net Leverage

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

INV Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI29.1Oversold
Stochastic1.3Oversold

INV's weekly RSI is 29 (oversold) and its Stochastic is 1 (oversold).

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

INV PE vs Financial Services Sector

INV has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

INV Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$0.3554% below
20 week MA$1.6390% below
50 week MA$3.4895% below
100 week MA$5.0097% below

MS has stronger trend alignment. INV is above 0 of 4 weekly averages versus MS above 3 of 5.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.

INV Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2024$10.8$13.4+24%
2025$13.4$4.26-68%
2026 YTD$4.26$0.16-96%

INV has finished lower in one of the last two years. It's down 96% so far in 2026.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over INV on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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