INSP
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
INSP has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
INSP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
INSP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
INSP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $39.83 | -34% |
| Current | 18x | $60.54 | — |
| Forward | 43x | $60.54 | — |
| Fair | 58x | $194 | +220% |
| Expensive | 173x | $579 | +857% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
INSP's PE is in its cheap range at 18x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 43x, in its fair range.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over INSP in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
INSP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect INSP's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
INSP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.41 | -58% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.35 | +125% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.53 | +159% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | +101% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.89 | +179% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.49 | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.75 | +775% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.19 | +$2.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.75 | +$2.47 |
INSP's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.35 over the past year, up 125% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
INSP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $206.7M | -7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.6M | -7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $204.6M | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $269.1M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $224.5M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $217.1M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $201.3M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $239.7M | +25% |
INSP's revenue has held roughly level: $207M last quarter, down 7.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -14% | -18 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.3% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5% | -4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7% | +8.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +8.5 points |
INSP's operating margin was −14% last quarter, down 18 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO has the edge over INSP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over INSP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
INSP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.9M | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.1M | +$20.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1M | +$18.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $41.8M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.1M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | -$6.3M | +$6.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$15.1M | -$12.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $62.2M | +573% |
INSP generated $98M in free cash flow over the past year, about the same as the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
INSP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -11.5K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -671K shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -437K shares |
| 5 years | +6% | +1.6M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +5.1M shares |
INSP has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $50M |
| Q3 2025 | $50M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $75M |
INSP spent $50M buying back its own shares over the past year.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
INSP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
INSP has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
INSP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.4 | Neutral |
INSP's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
INSP PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | INSP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 26x | 30% below |
| PE % | 32 | 29 | 3 pts above |
INSP is trading at 18x earnings, a 30% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over INSP on valuation relative to its sector.
INSP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $67.7 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $62.2 | 2.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $64.8 | 6.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $99.3 | 39% below |
| 200 week MA | $156.2 | 61% below |
INSP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 61% below its 200-week average.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has the edge over INSP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
INSP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.2 | $190.7 | +157% |
| 2021 | $190.7 | $239.2 | +25% |
| 2022 | $239.2 | $257.5 | +7.7% |
| 2023 | $257.5 | $203.4 | -21% |
| 2024 | $203.4 | $188.5 | -7.3% |
| 2025 | $188.5 | $95.5 | -49% |
| 2026 YTD | $95.5 | $60.5 | -37% |
INSP has finished three years in a row lower, and it's down 37% so far in 2026.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has the edge over INSP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.