INSP
Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.
INSP offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over INSP overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
INSP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
INSP's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
INSP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $39.83 | -34% |
| Current | 18x | $60.54 | — |
| Forward | 43x | $60.54 | — |
| Fair | 58x | $194 | +220% |
| Expensive | 173x | $579 | +857% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
INSP has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
INSP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect INSP's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over INSP on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
INSP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.41 | -58% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.35 | +125% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.53 | +159% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.40 | +101% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.89 | +179% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.49 | +37% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.75 | +775% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.19 | +$2.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.75 | +$2.47 |
INSP's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.35 over the past year, up 125% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
INSP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $206.7M | -7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $200.6M | -7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $204.6M | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $269.1M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $224.5M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $217.1M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $201.3M | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $239.7M | +25% |
INSP's revenue has held roughly level: $207M last quarter, down 7.9% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -14% | -18 points |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 4.3% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5% | -4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7% | +8.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +8.5 points |
INSP's operating margin was −14% last quarter, down 18 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over INSP on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over INSP on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
INSP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.9M | -33% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.1M | +$20.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.1M | +$18.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $41.8M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.1M | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | -$6.3M | +$6.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$15.1M | -$12.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $62.2M | +573% |
INSP generated $98M in free cash flow over the past year, about the same as the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over INSP on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
INSP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -11.5K shares |
| 1 year | -2.3% | -671K shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -437K shares |
| 5 years | +6% | +1.6M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +5.1M shares |
INSP has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $50M |
| Q3 2025 | $50M |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $75M |
INSP spent $50M buying back its own shares over the past year.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
INSP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
INSP has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
INSP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.4 | Neutral |
INSP's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 44 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
INSP PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | INSP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 18x | 26x | 30% below |
| PE % | 32 | 29 | 3 pts above |
INSP has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
INSP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $67.7 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $62.2 | 2.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $64.8 | 6.5% below |
| 100 week MA | $99.3 | 39% below |
| 200 week MA | $156.2 | 61% below |
INSP is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 61% below its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over INSP on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
INSP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.2 | $190.7 | +157% |
| 2021 | $190.7 | $239.2 | +25% |
| 2022 | $239.2 | $257.5 | +7.7% |
| 2023 | $257.5 | $203.4 | -21% |
| 2024 | $203.4 | $188.5 | -7.3% |
| 2025 | $188.5 | $95.5 | -49% |
| 2026 YTD | $95.5 | $60.5 | -37% |
INSP has finished three years in a row lower, and it's down 37% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over INSP on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.