INCY
Incyte Corporation
INCY's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over INCY overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
INCY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
INCY's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
INCY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $122 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $31.41 | -74% |
| Fair | 30x | $56.29 | -54% |
| Expensive | 64x | $121 | -0.9% |
| Current | 65x | $122 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
INCY's PE is in its expensive range at 65x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over INCY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
INCY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for INCY, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
INCY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $7.78 | +314% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.88 | -68% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.85 | +83% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.08 | +3440% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.41 | +4173% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.85 | +4079% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.28 | +1089% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.20 | -94% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.15 | -94% |
INCY earned $1.88 per share over the past year, down 68% from the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.81 over the past year, up 51% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
INCY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.7B | +38% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +21% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +20% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +16% |
INCY's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $1.6B last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -45% | -78 points |
| Q2 2026 | 42% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +4.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 22% | -3.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | +20 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +89 points |
| Q1 2025 | 19% | +9.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 26% | +7.1 points |
INCY's operating margin was −45% last quarter, down 78 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over INCY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over INCY on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
INCY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $218.8M | +$324.4M |
| Q4 2023 | $147.7M | -44% |
| Q3 2023 | $147.8M | -45% |
| Q2 2023 | $306.5M | +89% |
| Q1 2023 | -$105.6M | -153% |
| Q4 2022 | $262.4M | +224% |
| Q3 2022 | $268.6M | +20% |
| Q2 2022 | $162.4M | +52% |
LLY has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 259% versus its history, compared with INCY at up 68%.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY generated $19.7B in free cash flow over the past year, up 112% from the year before.
INCY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.4% | -5M shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +1.8M shares |
| 3 years | -10% | -22.9M shares |
| 5 years | -8.5% | -19M shares |
| Available history | -7% | -15.3M shares |
INCY has 203M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $103,000 |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over INCY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
INCY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -7.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -11.2x | Net Cash |
INCY has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
INCY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 54.3 | Neutral |
INCY's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 54 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
INCY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | INCY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 65x | 26x | 150% above |
| PE % | 83 | 29 | 54 pts above |
INCY is trading at 65x earnings, a 150% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY has the edge over INCY on valuation relative to its sector.
INCY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $117.8 | 3.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $119.9 | 1.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $107.8 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $91.4 | 33% above |
| 200 week MA | $77.7 | 57% above |
INCY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 57% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
INCY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $88.4 | $87.4 | -1.2% |
| 2021 | $87.4 | $73.5 | -16% |
| 2022 | $73.5 | $81.4 | +11% |
| 2023 | $81.4 | $62.8 | -23% |
| 2024 | $62.8 | $69.2 | +10% |
| 2025 | $69.2 | $100.1 | +45% |
| 2026 YTD | $100.1 | $121.7 | +22% |
INCY has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 22% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over INCY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.