ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
ICE has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over ICE overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
ICE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ICE's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ICE.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
ICE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $178 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $165 | -7.5% |
| Current | 24x | $178 | — |
| Fair | 28x | $209 | +17% |
| Expensive | 37x | $271 | +52% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ICE's PE is in its cheap range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over ICE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ICE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ICE, with profitability improving.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for SOFI, with profitability improving.
ICE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.59 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.33 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.08 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.87 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.77 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.49 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.21 | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.83 | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.78 | +14% |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI earned $0.56 per share over the past year, about the same as the year before.
ICE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.6B | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.7B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.2B | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +14% |
ICE's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $3.6B last quarter, up 21% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 36% | +0.8 points |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI has the edge over ICE on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI's operating margin was 23% last quarter, up 7.5 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2021.
ICE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $853M | +4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $881M | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +49% |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
ICE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -2M shares |
| 5 years | -0.5% | -3M shares |
| Available history | -0.4% | -2M shares |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $400M |
| Q2 2026 | $651M |
| Q1 2026 | $551M |
| Q4 2025 | $400M |
| Q3 2025 | $398M |
| Q2 2025 | $255M |
| Q1 2025 | $241M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ICE spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
ICE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.0x | Elevated |
ICE's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like ICE.
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has the edge over ICE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ICE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 88.9 | Overbought |
ICE's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
ICE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ICE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 13x | 86% above |
| PE % | 28 | 63 | 35 pts below |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on valuation relative to its sector.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI is trading at 28x earnings, a 114% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
ICE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $163.0 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $155.6 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $156.6 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $162.0 | 9.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $144.9 | 23% above |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
ICE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.0 | $112.7 | +21% |
| 2021 | $112.7 | $135.8 | +21% |
| 2022 | $135.8 | $102.8 | -24% |
| 2023 | $102.8 | $128.4 | +25% |
| 2024 | $128.4 | $150.3 | +17% |
| 2025 | $150.3 | $163.5 | +8.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $163.5 | $177.9 | +8.8% |
ICE has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.