ICE
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
ICE has the edge over JPM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
ICE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ICE's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ICE.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
ICE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $178 | — |
| Cheap | 22x | $165 | -7.5% |
| Current | 24x | $178 | — |
| Fair | 28x | $209 | +17% |
| Expensive | 37x | $271 | +52% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ICE's PE is in its cheap range at 24x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 21x next year's earnings.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM has the edge over ICE in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
ICE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
ICE has the edge over JPM on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
ICE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.59 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.33 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.08 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.87 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.77 | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.49 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.21 | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.83 | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.78 | +14% |
ICE has the edge over JPM on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $23.85 over the past year, up 18% from the year before, and higher year over year for 15 quarters in a row.
ICE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.6B | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.6B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.7B | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.1B | +3.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | -0.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.2B | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +14% |
ICE has the edge over JPM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 39% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +7.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 39% | +3.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 40% | +3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 38% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 36% | +0.8 points |
ICE's operating margin was 39% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $50.2B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over ICE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ICE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $853M | +4.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $881M | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +49% |
ICE has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
ICE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -0.4% | -2M shares |
| 5 years | -0.5% | -3M shares |
| Available history | -0.4% | -2M shares |
ICE has 563M diluted shares, down 1.9% from a year ago, with $2B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $400M |
| Q2 2026 | $651M |
| Q1 2026 | $551M |
| Q4 2025 | $400M |
| Q3 2025 | $398M |
| Q2 2025 | $255M |
| Q1 2025 | $241M |
| Q4 2023 | — |
ICE spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has the edge over ICE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
ICE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.3x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.0x | Elevated |
ICE's net debt is about 3.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.2 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like ICE.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM has the edge over ICE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
ICE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 88.9 | Overbought |
ICE's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
ICE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ICE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 24x | 13x | 86% above |
| PE % | 28 | 63 | 35 pts below |
ICE is trading at 24x earnings, a 86% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM has the edge over ICE on valuation relative to its sector.
ICE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $163.0 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $155.6 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $156.6 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $162.0 | 9.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $144.9 | 23% above |
ICE has the edge over JPM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 45% above its 200-week average.
ICE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $93.0 | $112.7 | +21% |
| 2021 | $112.7 | $135.8 | +21% |
| 2022 | $135.8 | $102.8 | -24% |
| 2023 | $102.8 | $128.4 | +25% |
| 2024 | $128.4 | $150.3 | +17% |
| 2025 | $150.3 | $163.5 | +8.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $163.5 | $177.9 | +8.8% |
ICE has the edge over JPM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 4.5% so far in 2026.