IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
SNOW has the edge over IBM overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
IBM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
IBM's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
SNOW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong | |
| Unavailable |
SNOW's revenue and cash flow are currently strong, but its profitability is under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
IBM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $194 | -21% |
| Forward | 19x | $245 | — |
| Current | 21x | $245 | — |
| Fair | 23x | $274 | +12% |
| Expensive | 46x | $538 | +120% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IBM's PE is in its cheap range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings.
SNOW PE Valuation
SNOW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IBM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect IBM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
SNOW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Broad | |
| Moderate |
SNOW has the edge over IBM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
IBM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.06 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $11.75 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $11.29 | +83% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.33 | +94% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.17 | +74% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.38 | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.18 | -32% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.83 | -34% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.43 | -21% |
IBM has the edge over SNOW on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
SNOW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.74 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$3.18 | +$0.96 |
| Q2 2026 | -$3.52 | +$0.68 |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.95 | -$0.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$4.03 | -$0.64 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.14 | -$1.08 |
| Q2 2025 | -$4.20 | -$1.40 |
| Q1 2025 | -$3.86 | -$1.31 |
| Q4 2024 | -$3.39 | -$0.71 |
SNOW is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $3.18 per share over the past year, against $4.20 at its worst in early 2025.
IBM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $17.1B | +4.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.2B | +1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.9B | +9.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.7B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $16.3B | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $17B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.5B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.6B | +1% |
IBM's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $17.1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.7% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +20 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | -2.8 points |
IBM has the edge over SNOW on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
SNOW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $1B | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $986.8M | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $942.1M | +28% |
SNOW has the edge over IBM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -17% | +13 points |
| Q2 2026 | -23% | +20 points |
| Q1 2026 | -25% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | -27% | +12 points |
| Q3 2025 | -30% | +11 points |
| Q2 2025 | -43% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | -39% | -3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -39% | -3.3 points |
SNOW's operating margin was −17% last quarter, up 13 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
IBM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.4B | +59% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.9B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.7B | -9.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.8B | +8.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.1B | +5% |
| Q4 2024 | $4B | -3.3% |
IBM's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.7B over the past year, up 18% from the year before.
SNOW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $83.8M | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $232.8M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $765.1M | +82% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.6M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $58.2M | -10% |
| Q2 2025 | $183.4M | -46% |
| Q1 2025 | $421.4M | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $88.3M | -21% |
SNOW has the edge over IBM on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
IBM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +260K shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +4.6M shares |
| 3 years | +3.2% | +29.9M shares |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +47.6M shares |
| Available history | +2.1% | +19.6M shares |
IBM has the edge over SNOW on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2019 | — |
SNOW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.1% | +3.9M shares |
| 1 year | +4.2% | +14M shares |
| 3 years | +6.7% | +21.9M shares |
| 5 years | +17% | +51.5M shares |
| Available history | +47% | +111M shares |
SNOW has 349M diluted shares, up 4.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $300M |
| Q1 2026 | $150M |
| Q4 2025 | $232.9M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $490.6M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $1B |
SNOW spent $683M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 55% from the year before.
IBM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 4.0x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.6x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.4x | High |
IBM's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.2 years a year ago.
SNOW Net Leverage
SNOW's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
IBM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.8 | Neutral |
IBM's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
SNOW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 52.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 25.2 | Neutral |
SNOW's weekly RSI is 52 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 25 (neutral).
IBM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | IBM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 25% below |
| PE % | 31 | 35 | 4 pts below |
IBM is trading at 21x earnings, a 25% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
SNOW PE vs Technology Sector
SNOW has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
IBM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $238.6 | 2.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $239.3 | 2.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $256.6 | 4.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $258.5 | 5.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $212.3 | 15% above |
IBM's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 15% above its 200-week average.
SNOW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $319.9 | 6.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $311.5 | 4.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $238.6 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $218.8 | 37% above |
| 200 week MA | $187.5 | 59% above |
SNOW has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 59% above its 200-week average.
IBM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $129.3 | $119.2 | -7.8% |
| 2021 | $119.2 | $130.6 | +9.6% |
| 2022 | $130.6 | $141.7 | +8.4% |
| 2023 | $141.7 | $163.6 | +15% |
| 2024 | $163.6 | $222.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $222.8 | $305.1 | +37% |
| 2026 YTD | $305.1 | $244.7 | -20% |
IBM has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 20% so far in 2026.
SNOW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $240.0 | $323.0 | +35% |
| 2021 | $323.0 | $349.2 | +8.1% |
| 2022 | $349.2 | $138.5 | -60% |
| 2023 | $138.5 | $199.0 | +44% |
| 2024 | $199.0 | $158.7 | -20% |
| 2025 | $158.7 | $223.9 | +41% |
| 2026 YTD | $223.9 | $298.7 | +33% |
SNOW has the edge over IBM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.