IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.
IBKR offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over IBKR overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
IBKR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
IBKR's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like IBKR.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
IBKR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 19x | $50.15 | -38% |
| Fair | 23x | $60.78 | -25% |
| Forward | 26x | $81.33 | — |
| Current | 31x | $81.33 | — |
| Expensive | 32x | $84.00 | +3.3% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
IBKR has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
IBKR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for IBKR, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
IBKR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.18 | +22% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.60 | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.50 | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.33 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.22 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.08 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.91 | +21% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.81 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.73 | +22% |
IBKR's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $2.60 over the past year, up 25% from the year before, and higher year over year for 16 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over IBKR on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
IBKR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.9B | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.9B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | +18% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.4B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +22% |
IBKR has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 78% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 77% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 77% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 79% | +4.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 79% | +13 points |
| Q2 2025 | 75% | +3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 74% | +1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 75% | +3.3 points |
IBKR has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
IBKR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $858M | -81% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.2B | -13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.6B | +40% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.6B | -12% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.5B | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.1B | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6B | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.8B | -22% |
IBKR has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
IBKR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.9% | +3.8M shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +7.4M shares |
| 3 years | +6% | +25.9M shares |
| 5 years | +17% | +66M shares |
| Available history | +48% | +147M shares |
IBKR has 454M diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over IBKR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
IBKR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
IBKR has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
IBKR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.1 | Oversold |
IBKR's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
IBKR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | IBKR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 31x | 13x | 140% above |
| PE % | 79 | 63 | 16 pts above |
IBKR is trading at 31x earnings, a 140% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over IBKR on valuation relative to its sector.
IBKR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $82.8 | 1.8% below |
| 20 week MA | $88.1 | 7.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $80.4 | 1.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $68.0 | 20% above |
| 200 week MA | $47.1 | 73% above |
IBKR has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8- and 20-week averages, but 73% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
IBKR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.8 | $15.3 | +30% |
| 2021 | $15.3 | $20.0 | +31% |
| 2022 | $20.0 | $18.4 | -7.9% |
| 2023 | $18.4 | $20.7 | +12% |
| 2024 | $20.7 | $44.8 | +116% |
| 2025 | $44.8 | $66.2 | +48% |
| 2026 YTD | $66.2 | $81.3 | +23% |
IBKR has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.