HUM
Humana Inc.
HUM's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over HUM overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
HUM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable |
HUM's revenue is currently healthy, and its profitability and balance sheet are stable, but its cash flow is under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HUM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 17x | $171 | -62% |
| Fair | 20x | $205 | -54% |
| Expensive | 24x | $251 | -43% |
| Forward | 26x | $444 | — |
| Current | 43x | $444 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HUM's PE is in its expensive range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 26x next year's earnings.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY has the edge over HUM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HUM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HUM, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over HUM on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
HUM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $17.03 | +65% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.29 | -3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.58 | -19% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.37 | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.84 | -1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.70 | -6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.06 | -8% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.17 | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $9.98 | -50% |
HUM's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $10.29 over the past year, against $31.20 in late 2020.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.83 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over HUM on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HUM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $41.2B | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $40.9B | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $39.6B | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.5B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $32.6B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.4B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $32.1B | +8.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $29.2B | +10% |
HUM's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $41.2B last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.3% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.4% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | -2.5% | -0.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.2% | -1.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 3.4% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.3% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.9% | -0.5 points |
HUM's operating margin was 0.2% last quarter, down 1.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over HUM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over HUM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HUM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +142% |
| Q2 2026 | -$558M | -148% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +380% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.9B | -$1.2B |
| Q3 2025 | $836M | -52% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $236M | -4.1% |
| Q4 2024 | -$682M | +$6.7B |
HUM still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $747M over the past year.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over HUM on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HUM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.8% | +935K shares |
| 1 year | +0.9% | +1.1M shares |
| 3 years | -1.7% | -2.2M shares |
| 5 years | -5.7% | -7.4M shares |
| Available history | -9.6% | -12.9M shares |
HUM has 122M diluted shares, up 0.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2M |
| Q2 2026 | $1M |
| Q1 2026 | $107M |
| Q4 2025 | $42M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $100M |
| Q1 2025 | $9M |
| Q4 2024 | $49M |
HUM spent $152M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 3.8% from the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over HUM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
HUM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.8x | Moderate |
HUM's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over HUM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HUM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.1 | Neutral |
HUM's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
HUM PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | HUM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 43x | 26x | 67% above |
| PE % | 100 | 29 | 71 pts above |
HUM has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
HUM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $418.2 | 6.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $401.2 | 11% above |
| 50 week MA | $309.6 | 43% above |
| 100 week MA | $285.0 | 56% above |
| 200 week MA | $349.2 | 27% above |
HUM has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 27% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
HUM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $371.0 | $404.8 | +9.1% |
| 2021 | $404.8 | $460.5 | +14% |
| 2022 | $460.5 | $514.0 | +12% |
| 2023 | $514.0 | $457.8 | -11% |
| 2024 | $457.8 | $255.6 | -44% |
| 2025 | $255.6 | $258.8 | +1.2% |
| 2026 YTD | $258.8 | $443.7 | +71% |
HUM has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.