HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc.
HTH has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
SOFI
SoFi Technologies, Inc.
SOFI has the edge over HTH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
HTH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HTH's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HTH.
SOFI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
SOFI's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like SOFI.
HTH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.5x | $15.72 | -56% |
| Fair | 14x | $34.01 | -5.8% |
| Current | 15x | $36.10 | — |
| Forward | 16x | $36.10 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $43.63 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HTH's PE is in its fair range at 15x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 16x, in its expensive range.
SOFI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 19x | $15.63 | — |
| Current | 28x | $15.63 | — |
| Cheap | 33x | $18.24 | +17% |
| Fair | 43x | $23.82 | +52% |
| Expensive | 53x | $29.74 | +90% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
SOFI has the edge over HTH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HTH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HTH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
SOFI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
SOFI has the edge over HTH on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
HTH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.23 | -7% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.40 | -4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.70 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.64 | +34% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.65 | +52% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.51 | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.23 | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.97 | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.74 | +3% |
HTH has the edge over SOFI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
SOFI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | +47% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.56 | 0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49 | -2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.45 | +4.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39 | 0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 | +367% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.50 | +$0.72 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.43 | +$0.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.39 | +$0.75 |
SOFI earned $0.56 per share over the past year, about the same as the year before.
HTH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $309.5M | -6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $315.8M | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $300.5M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $329.9M | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $330.2M | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $303.3M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $318.5M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $301.1M | +3.7% |
HTH's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $310M last quarter, down 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +6.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | +4.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +1.5 points |
HTH's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
SOFI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B | +43% |
| Q4 2025 | $1B | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $961.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $854.9M | +43% |
| Q1 2025 | $771.8M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $734.1M | +19% |
SOFI has the edge over HTH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 23% | +7.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | +3.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +7.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 18% | +9.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 15% | +6.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | -0.2 points |
SOFI has the edge over HTH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HTH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $503.6M | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | -$162.8M | +$71.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$133.9M | -2757% |
| Q4 2025 | -$97M | -180% |
| Q3 2025 | $271M | -47% |
| Q2 2025 | -$234.6M | +$202.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $5M | -93% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.9M | -53% |
HTH has the edge over SOFI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
SOFI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.1B | -$1.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$4B | -$2.5B |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.4B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.1B | -$815.2M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.4B | -$149M |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.5B | -$1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$31.1M | -104% |
| Q4 2024 | -$242.4M | +$39.9M |
SOFI's free cash flow was −$10.5B over the past year, against −$3.2B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like SOFI.
HTH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -808K shares |
| 1 year | -8.1% | -5M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -8M shares |
| 5 years | -29% | -23.4M shares |
| Available history | -38% | -35.3M shares |
HTH has the edge over SOFI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20M |
| Q2 2026 | $47M |
| Q1 2026 | $47.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $60.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $55.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $34.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $33.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
HTH spent $175M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 42% from the year before.
SOFI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +5.8M shares |
| 1 year | +5.2% | +66.8M shares |
| 3 years | +43% | +407M shares |
| 5 years | +272% | +993M shares |
SOFI has 1.4B diluted shares, up 5.2% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
HTH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 4.6x | High |
HTH has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HTH.
SOFI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.5x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -4.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.8x | Net Cash |
SOFI has the edge over HTH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HTH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.6 | Neutral |
HTH's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
SOFI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
SOFI's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
HTH PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HTH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 16% above |
| PE % | 61 | 63 | 2 pts below |
HTH has the edge over SOFI on valuation relative to its sector.
SOFI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | SOFI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 28x | 13x | 114% above |
| PE % | 2 | 61 | 59 pts below |
SOFI is trading at 28x earnings, a 114% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HTH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.0 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.2 | 5.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.3 | 3.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $34.2 | 5.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $32.7 | 10% above |
HTH has the edge over SOFI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
SOFI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.7 | 0.7% below |
| 20 week MA | $17.0 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 100 week MA | $18.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $13.5 | 16% above |
SOFI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 16% above its 200-week average.
HTH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $24.6 | $27.3 | +11% |
| 2021 | $27.3 | $34.7 | +27% |
| 2022 | $34.7 | $29.7 | -14% |
| 2023 | $29.7 | $35.2 | +19% |
| 2024 | $35.2 | $28.9 | -18% |
| 2025 | $28.9 | $34.6 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $34.6 | $36.1 | +4.3% |
HTH has the edge over SOFI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
SOFI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $10.4 | $12.4 | +19% |
| 2021 | $12.4 | $15.1 | +22% |
| 2022 | $15.1 | $4.61 | -69% |
| 2023 | $4.61 | $9.95 | +116% |
| 2024 | $9.95 | $16.0 | +61% |
| 2025 | $16.0 | $27.1 | +69% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.1 | $15.6 | -42% |
SOFI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +116% in 2023 to −69% in 2022. It's down 42% so far in 2026.