HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc.
HTH's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HTH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HTH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HTH's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HTH.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HTH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.5x | $15.72 | -56% |
| Fair | 14x | $34.01 | -5.8% |
| Current | 15x | $36.10 | — |
| Forward | 16x | $36.10 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $43.63 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HTH's PE is in its fair range at 15x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 16x, in its expensive range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over HTH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HTH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HTH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HTH on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
HTH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.26 | -5.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.40 | -4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.70 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.64 | +34% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.65 | +52% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.51 | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.23 | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.97 | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.74 | +3% |
HTH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.40 over the past year, against $5.93 in early 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HTH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HTH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $309.5M | -6.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $315.8M | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $300.5M | -5.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $329.9M | +9.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $330.2M | +8.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $303.3M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $318.5M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $301.1M | +3.7% |
HTH's revenue fell from its 2020 peak and has held roughly level since: $310M last quarter, down 6.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | -7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 16% | -0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | +1.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +4.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +6.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 18% | +4.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +1.5 points |
HTH's operating margin was 11% last quarter, down 7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over HTH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HTH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HTH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $503.6M | +86% |
| Q2 2026 | -$162.8M | +$71.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$133.9M | -2757% |
| Q4 2025 | -$97M | -180% |
| Q3 2025 | $271M | -47% |
| Q2 2025 | -$234.6M | +$202.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $5M | -93% |
| Q4 2024 | $121.9M | -53% |
HTH has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HTH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -808K shares |
| 1 year | -8.1% | -5M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -8M shares |
| 5 years | -29% | -23.4M shares |
| Available history | -38% | -35.3M shares |
HTH has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20M |
| Q2 2026 | $47M |
| Q1 2026 | $47.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $60.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $55.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $34.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $33.3M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
HTH spent $175M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 42% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
HTH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | -2.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -5.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 4.6x | High |
HTH has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HTH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.6 | Neutral |
HTH's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HTH PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HTH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 16% above |
| PE % | 61 | 63 | 2 pts below |
HTH is trading at 15x earnings, a 16% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over HTH on valuation relative to its sector.
HTH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.0 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $38.2 | 5.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $37.3 | 3.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $34.2 | 5.5% above |
| 200 week MA | $32.7 | 10% above |
HTH has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 10% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over HTH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HTH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $24.6 | $27.3 | +11% |
| 2021 | $27.3 | $34.7 | +27% |
| 2022 | $34.7 | $29.7 | -14% |
| 2023 | $29.7 | $35.2 | +19% |
| 2024 | $35.2 | $28.9 | -18% |
| 2025 | $28.9 | $34.6 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $34.6 | $36.1 | +4.3% |
HTH has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.